– by New Deal democrat August CPI, with the conspicuous exception of shelter, continued to come in tame. And the list of other “problem children” decreased by 1, as only food away from home (restaurants) and transportation services (motor vehicle insurance and repairs) remain. Let’s get the headlines out of the way:  – Headline CPI continued increased […]

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today or tomorrow, so let’s take a more detailed look at the leading indicators from Friday’s jobs report. It turns out, the news wasn’t nearly as bad as the headline employment number. Let’s start with the negative stuff. The simple story is, manufacturing is in a […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the wake of yesterday’s weak jobs report, bond yields and mortgage rates declined to 12 months+ lows, commodities declined across the board, stocks sold off sharply, and the 10 years to 2-year Treasury spread un-inverted. That’s bad news and good news. […]

 – by New Deal democrat My focus continues to be on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether there is further decline towards a recession.  For a change, this month the Establishment report was the weakest in several years, if still positive. Meanwhile the Household report rebounded […]

 – by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the Millennium, manufacturing’s share of the economy has contracted to the point where even a significant decline in that index has not translated into an economy-wide recession, as for example in 2015-16.  When […]

 – by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, plus the several week spike post-Beryl was all about Texas, both have held up very well. And that has continued to be the case against more challenging YoY comparisons as the […]

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. In July, it painted a picture of what looks like pretty relentless deterioration. The theme for three of the four data series I track was the same: job […]

 – by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction. First, the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction yet again, with the headline number “less negative” by way of increasing from 46.8 to 47.2, and the more leading new orders subindex declining sharply […]

 – by New Deal democrat On this Labor Day, it is fitting to update the economic state of ordinary workers. There is a variety of economic data series to track both average and median wages: Without further ado, here is the update for all four. Average hourly wages are updated through July; the other three […]

 – by New Deal democrat My detailed “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread briefly normalized during the week, on Wednesday, and ended the week only inverted by 1 basis point (.01%). Second, almost *all* of the coincident indicators are […]