– by New Deal democrat A periodic reminder, real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells us so much about the state of the consumer, and since consumption leads employment, it is a short leading indicator for that as well. In September retail sales in August rose 0.4% on a […]

 – by New Deal democrat Before I get to the (relatively) good news in retail sales, let’s take a look at the bad news from industrial production. On a monthly basis, production declined -0.3%. Manufacturing declined -0.4%. There were also downward revisions to last month. Both of these continue to slowly fade from their 2022 […]

– by New Deal democrat The drought in new economic data continues through today. We’ll make up for it all at once tomorrow with jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production.  In the meantime, last week I noted that Hurricane Helene’s impact in Florida and North Carolina was a big part of the reason for […]

– by New Deal democrat  One of my fundamentals-based systems for monitoring the economy is to look at the health of household balance sheets. Most recessions happen when consumers are under stress. If real wages are growing, if assets that can be leveraged or cashed in (mortgage payments, home equity, stocks) are increasing in value, if […]

For Indigenous Persons Day: a review of “A Brave and Cunning Prince” by James Horn  – by New Deal democrat Recently I read the above entitled book, and found it fascinating. Below are excerpts from an online book review, to which I have added further detail in brackets. I highly recommend it: “In the mid-sixteenth […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.  The long end of the yield curve has steepened, and that means longer term interest rates are higher. Meanwhile the Hurricanes have played havoc with some of the high frequency data. As usual, clicking over and reading will help sort through the noise, […]

– by New Deal democrat Sometimes producer prices lead consumer prices; sometimes they don’t – but in the sense that sometimes there is no lag at all before increases show up in consumer prices. In any event, overall the message from the producer price index this morning was benign, with very little pressure “in the […]

– by New Deal democrat Today’s CPI report for September came in almost exactly as I suggested it would in my preview yesterday. To wit:  – Headline CPI continued increased 0.2% for the month, and decelerated to 2.4% YoY, its best showing since February of 2021.   – On a 3 month annualized basis, prices are […]

 – by New Deal democrat Step away from the ledge, everybody; and pay no attention to the DOOOMers, who are surely out in force this morning: the big increase in initial claims was almost all about Hurricane Helene. By the numbers, initial claims increased 33,000 to 258,000, the highest number since August 2023. The four […]

Real aggregate payrolls and inflation preview for September  – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow consumer prices for September will be reported. It’s almost certain that the best short term forecasting tool from the employment report, real aggregate payrolls, will increase once again. Let’s take a more detailed look. Post-pandemic, nominally aggregate payrolls have increased relentlessly. […]