Weekly Indicators for August 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important metrics have reversed course in the past month. Interest rates, especially mortgage rates, have declined (in the case of mortgages, by 1 full % from their peak. As many have pointed […]
July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker […]
Jobless claims continue their relentless climb – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been rising relentlessly, rose another 6,000 as well to 254,750, an 8 month high. Continuing claims also rose 48,000 to 1,417,000, the highest since April: Initial claims […]
Coronavirus dashboard for August 3: is this what endemicity looks like? – by New Deal democrat Confirmed cases nationwide (dotted line below) declined to 121,700, still within their recent 120-130,000 range. Deaths (solid line) are also steady at 431, within their recent 400-450 range as well: Hospitalizations have plateaued in the past 10 days reported […]
JOLTS report for June amplifies likelihood of substantial downturn in job growth, upturn in unemployment Before we get to the JOLTS report for June, which was released this morning, I wanted to make a point about the overall trend in employment. Because, the two best short leading indicators for employment and unemployment are both pointing […]
Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new […]
Weekly Indicators for July 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There have been some interesting counter-trend movements in the indicators. For example, interest rates on mortgages have declined by more than 1% since their peak one month ago. Gas prices have declined by […]
Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend – by New Deal democrat In June personal income rose 0.6% nominally, and nominal spending rose 1.1%. The personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, clocked in at 1.0%, meaning real income fell -0.4%, while real personal spending rose 0.1%. […]
Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here? If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) […]
Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month […]