– by New Deal democrat Today’s CPI report for September came in almost exactly as I suggested it would in my preview yesterday. To wit:  – Headline CPI continued increased 0.2% for the month, and decelerated to 2.4% YoY, its best showing since February of 2021.   – On a 3 month annualized basis, prices are […]

Real aggregate payrolls and inflation preview for September  – by New Deal democrat Tomorrow consumer prices for September will be reported. It’s almost certain that the best short term forecasting tool from the employment report, real aggregate payrolls, will increase once again. Let’s take a more detailed look. Post-pandemic, nominally aggregate payrolls have increased relentlessly. […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the wake of yesterday’s weak jobs report, bond yields and mortgage rates declined to 12 months+ lows, commodities declined across the board, stocks sold off sharply, and the 10 years to 2-year Treasury spread un-inverted. That’s bad news and good news. […]