– by New Deal democrat With this morning’s release of new home sales, we have all of the important housing data releases for the month. So let’s integrate that into the overall housing outlook. Let’s begin with my usual  overview that new home sales are the single most leading metric for the entire sector, but […]

– by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case Shiller continued to show deceleration in this metric which is very important to home buyers. Specifically, in the three month average through July, U.S. house prices rose 0.2% according to Case Shiller’s national index, and only 0.1% according to the slightly more […]

 – by New Deal democrat Today, New Deal democrat offers a Big Picture hypothesis. This is Housing Week, but there is no significant data today, and I’m going to wait for new home sales to be reported on Wednesday before commenting on how existing home sales fit in. In the meantime, let me unpack a […]

 – by New Deal democrat There are some economic and financial indicators that aren’t classic leading or lagging indicators. Rather, they are “over-sensitive” in one direction or another. Two good examples are heavy truck sales and the unemployment rate: they are over-sensitive to the downside: they lead going in to recessions, but lag coming out. […]

 – by New Deal democrat You may recall that last week I wrote that beginning this week and for the next 6+ months, initial claims would be up against some very tough comparisons from 2023 and would be the ultimate true test of whether there has been unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the numbers. Well, this […]

– by New Deal democrat Residential construction permits and starts bounced back from their July Hurricane-Beryl affected decline, but housing units under construction declined below the threshold for hoisting a yellow “recession watch” flag for this sector. At the same time, I continue to suspect that we are rising from lows in the most leading […]

And now, some good news: industrial and manufacturing production rebounded strongly in August  – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The imminent likelihood of a Fed rate cut has continued to drive rates down to new 12-month lows (which is good for things like mortgages in particular). Meanwhile consumer spending as measured weekly is also near 12 month highs, which is also […]

 – by New Deal democrat I’m a little late to this, since FRED took its time updating, but the annual report of median household income for the US was released on Tuesday for 2023.  This is an important statistic about the well-being of, well, the median American household, so one of my pet peeves is […]

– by New Deal democrat If residual post-pandemic seasonality has been affecting jobless claims statistics, the real acid test is going to begin next week, as for the next 7+ months, any number higher than 220,000 is almost always going to be higher than one year ago. In the meantime, for this our last week of […]