Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined substantially, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: documenting the transition from pandemic to endemic ~~~~~~~ The COVID-19 pandemic is ever so gradually transforming into an endemic illness, the major risks of which still mainly fall on seniors. Here is the long-term view of cases (dotted line) and deaths (solid line) in the US: While cases are similar […]
Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn […]
Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession […]
An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages. This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started […]
The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose 2,750 to 218,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 ten weeks ago. Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 1,312,000, or 6,000 above […]
Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was revised down by -0.2% to +0.7%. This reduces April’s number, after inflation to +0.4%, followed by a “real” decline in May of -1.2% after rounding. […]
On the road, and missing all the fun on Wall Street . . . I’m still on the road, and there is no important economic statistic to report, but I will make a brief market comment. YoY stocks are now down 10%. Except for the very bad 1982 and 2008 recessions, and the 2000 Nasdaq […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 6 – 10 and a comment on COVID I’m still traveling, so light posting for a couple days more. In fact, I neglected to post a link to my Weekly Indicators on Saturday. A bit tardy, here it is. Conditions across all time frames do not look so good, […]
Consumer prices rise 1% in May alone; owners’ equivalent rent at 30 year high; expect the Fed to keep stomping on the brakes Today is a travel day for me, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. People who were hoping inflation would abate did not get the news they wanted from the May CPI. Consumer […]