– by New Deal democrat Officially reported initial jobless claims declined -17,000 to 233,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 750 to 240,750. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 6,000 to 1.875 million, the highest number since November 17, 2021: On the more important YoY basis, initial claims were down -9.7%, while […]

– by New Deal democrat Continuing my catching up this week, let’s take a look in some further detail about why I didn’t think Friday’s jobs report portended recession – at least, not yet. As I always point out, the jobs report does contain some leading numbers. These are generally employment in more cyclical industries […]

Credit conditions in Q2 improved, and are typical of an economy having come *out* of a recession, not going in to one  – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, the premier quarterly measure of the loose- or tight-ness of bank lending, was published yesterday for Q2. And since lending conditions are a […]

Economically weighted ISM indexes show (and forecast) an economy still – barely – in expansion  – by New Deal democrat As I was traveling last week, I did not write about several data series that I normally update. I plan on taking care of that this week. There’s also a little excitement in the markets […]

July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also […]

Jobless claims increase; no longer positive but neutral (and likely still affected by unresolved seasonality)  – by New Deal democrat I’m still on the road, so this will be an abbreviated report. Initial claims rose 14,000 to 249,000, the highest since last August. The four week moving average rose 2,500 to 238,000, the highest since […]

 – by New Deal democrat Angry Bear PM Take: It would seem like Fed Chair Powell feels good about the progress. The theme of the JOLTS report for June was “continued deceleration,” but no particular cause for concern. As we’ll see below, that’s because the “bad” metrics declined just as much as the “good” ones […]

Repeat home sales were benign in May, forecast continued downtrend in shelter CPI in months ahead  – by New Deal democrat First, a brief administrative note: I am traveling this week, so posting is going to be sporadic and delayed. I’ll get to this morning’s JOLTS report later today or tomorrow morning. With that out […]

Weekly Indicators for July 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The high frequency data, like the personal income and spending report, continue to show a strong consumer. Some of the long term negatives have also gotten “less bad” as well. As usual, […]

Personal income, spending, and prices: consumer remains strong, inflation close to 2% target no matter how you measure it  – by New Deal democrat I am on the road today, so I will have to keep this brief. In June nominal personal income rose 0.3%, and spending rose 0.2%. Since PCE inflation rose less than […]