– by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more likely than not that it is mainly unresolved post-pandemic seasonality. We’ll probably get a more definitive answer to that issue in th next several weeks. Initial Jobless claims declined 5,000 for […]
– by New Deal democrat I saw a graph within the past few days (which unfortunately I did not make a copy of) indicating Biden’s polling problems are not against Trump per se so much as they are the failure of Biden to consolidate support among young voters, especially voters of color, vs. Trump’s having […]
– by New Deal democrat There was good news and not so good news in this morning’s two important data releases. I’ll start with the good news. Both total industrial production and its manufacturing component increased a sharp 0.9% in May. Even after downward revisions of -0.4% in March and -0.3% in April, both were […]
If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people […]
Post-pandemic Latin American immigration and the unemployment rate (and it’s implications for the economy) – by New Deal democrat One week ago, in analyzing the jobs report, I noted the continuing severe disconnect between the Establishment Survey, which continues to show strong growth, and the Household Survey, which has been downright recessionary. I expanded on […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose significantly last week, up 13,000 to 242,000, the highest level since last August. The four-week moving average rose 4,750 to 227,000, the highest level since last September. And with the usual one-week delay, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.820 million, the highest since this January: There […]
May CPI continued to be all about shelter – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices in May showed no inflation at all, as a decline in gas prices helped the headline number come in unchanged. YoY inflation decelerated -0.1% to 3.3% – continuing in the narrow 3.0%-3.4% range it has been in for the last […]
– by New Deal democrat This is a continuation of my post from yesterday discussing the large divergences between the Household and Establishment jobs surveys. A big current issue with the Household Survey is whether, by relying on Census estimates, it has substantially underestimated population growth, and in particular immigration-driven growth, in the past two […]
– by New Deal democrat As per usual, the Monday after jobs report Friday does not update any significant data. So let me return to the deep divergence between the Household and Establishment Surveys in the jobs report. With Friday’s data for May, the two have now diverged 1.9% over the past year, adjusted for […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The stock market was conflicted by yesterday’s jobs report, but the bond market’s verdict was unequivocal: ignore the unemployment rate; it was a strong report which will stay the Fed’s hand from raising rates. Meanwhile, coincident economic data in particular continues to […]