The inverted Treasury yield curve: we are in uncharted territory – by New Deal democrat We passed a significant anniversary last week: the spread for the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury has been inverted for over 2 years (blue in the graph below). The 2-year minus 3-month Treasury spread has also been inverted for 20 months […]
Real average nonsupervisory wages near, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls at, all-time highs – by New Deal democrat Now that we have the CPI reading for June, we can calculate how average wage earners are doing in “real” terms. First, real average hourly nonsupervisory wages increased 0.4% for the second straight month. On a YoY basis, […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer prices in June failed to show any inflation at all for the second month in a row, as they declined -0.1% following an unchanged reading in May. On a YoY basis inflation decelerated -0.3% to 3.0% (technically 2.98% if you go out one further decimal point), the lowest YoY […]
– by New Deal democrat Ever since jobless claims started higher in May, I’ve cautioned that I suspected that unresolved seasonality may be at play. This week and the next two weeks are the acid test for that hypothesis, because they were the lowest weeks for claims all last summer. And . . . The […]
The leading sectors of the labor market are still generally trending positive – by New Deal democrat Our economic news drought ends tomorrow with the CPI report, and I’ve beaten the issue of unemployment to death, so today let’s turn to the leading sectors from the Establishment Survey portion of the jobs report, whereas I’ve […]
– by New Deal democrat In my discussion yesterday of why the Sahm Rule might be giving a false signal at present, I noted that “in addition to the 1980-81 double-dip period, significantly the only other time [a big increase in new entrants into the labor force leading up to a recession] even came close […]
– by New Deal democrat AB: What does the Sahm rule signify? If the three-month moving average of the jobless rate rises by at least a half-percentage point from its low during the previous 12 months, then a recession has started. NDd; In my summation of Friday’s employment report, I wrote that “[t]here will probably […]
– by New Deal democrat AB: July 3rd, NDd mentioned he would review the comparison between the Household and the Establishment Survey Reports today. He had initially look at the comparison July 3. In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ll spare you the introductory graphs this month, but let me reiterate my opening comments from last month: I never used to pay much attention to the ISM non-manufacturing report. That is partly because it only has a 20 year history, and partly because it seems to be more coincident […]
– by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming note, later this morning I will also post about the ISM non-manufacturing survey once it is published, since it now plays an increased role in my forecasting]. Initial claims rose 4,000 last week to […]