– by New Deal democrat This week’s data focuses on house prices and new home sales, and the more important personal income and spending report on Friday. In the housing data I am looking at any movement towards rebalancing between new and existing home sales. To recapitulate, the big increase in mortgage rates has locked […]
New Deal democrat at The Bonddad Blog takes a vacation day. On the road again . . . Fortunately, there’s no significant economic news today, so a perfect day to play hooky. See you tomorrow.
– by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing product rather than indicating growth or contraction in the creation of a new product. Thus my main focus at present on this data is the extent to which it shows – or […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and construction sectors for signs of weakness now that the supply chain tailwind for the economy has ended. At the beginning of this month, one show appeared to have dropped, as the ISM […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more likely than not that it is mainly unresolved post-pandemic seasonality. We’ll probably get a more definitive answer to that issue in th next several weeks. Initial Jobless claims declined 5,000 for […]
– by New Deal democrat I saw a graph within the past few days (which unfortunately I did not make a copy of) indicating Biden’s polling problems are not against Trump per se so much as they are the failure of Biden to consolidate support among young voters, especially voters of color, vs. Trump’s having […]
– by New Deal democrat There was good news and not so good news in this morning’s two important data releases. I’ll start with the good news. Both total industrial production and its manufacturing component increased a sharp 0.9% in May. Even after downward revisions of -0.4% in March and -0.3% in April, both were […]
If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people […]
Post-pandemic Latin American immigration and the unemployment rate (and it’s implications for the economy) – by New Deal democrat One week ago, in analyzing the jobs report, I noted the continuing severe disconnect between the Establishment Survey, which continues to show strong growth, and the Household Survey, which has been downright recessionary. I expanded on […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose significantly last week, up 13,000 to 242,000, the highest level since last August. The four-week moving average rose 4,750 to 227,000, the highest level since last September. And with the usual one-week delay, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.820 million, the highest since this January: There […]