– by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Here is today’s update on one of my favorite indicators: retail sales. In April they were unchanged on a nominal basis. Adjusted for inflation they declined -0.3% for the month. They are also down -6.2% from their 2021 peak and -2.9% since January 2023: On a YoY basis, they […]
– by New Deal democrat First, a programming note: I’ll post about retail sales later today. Consumer inflation in April continued essentially to be an interplay between shelter and gas prices, with a side helping of auto insurance and repairs. During late 2022 and early 2023, shelter was still accelerating or steady at a high […]
– by New Deal democrat Tomorrow and Thursday a plethora of data will be released, on consumer inflation and spending, production, housing, and jobless claims. In the meantime today we got a chance to look at upstream pressures on inflation. And those upstream pressures do seem to be building slightly, reflecting a strong economy with […]
Weekly Indicators for May 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The majority of short leading and coincident indicators continue to show strength rather than weakness. This week it was commodity prices’ turn to show that the global economy is getting stronger. As […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve written two posts earlier this week delving into the big divergence between the Establishment Survey portion of the Employment Report, which shows moderate growth, and the Household Survey, which is most consistent with a recession already having started. At any given time, some data will be positive and some […]
– by New Deal democrat After several months of snoozing at almost identical weekly levels, initial jobless claims awoke with a bit of a jolt this week, increasing by 22,000 to 231,000, the highest weekly number since last August. The four week average unsurprisingly also rose, by 4,750, to 215,000. With the usual one week […]
– by New Deal democrat AB: New Deal democrat reviews the Establishment Survey and again it differs from the Household Survey in a positive way. On Monday I wrote that the Household survey portion of the jobs report was recessionary for the second time in three months. But I pointed out that there was a […]
– by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. The big drawback of this series is that the information is […]
– by New Deal democrat First, a brief programming note. This week is particularly sparse in the new economic data department. The Senior Loan Officer Survey will be reported this afternoon, and on Thursday as usual we get jobless claims. Aside from that, nada. So I might take a day or two off. But I want […]
Weekly Indicators for April 29 – May 3 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Very little change this week in any of the indicators, but what there was had everything to do with the frame of reference, because all gas prices under $3/gallon have now dropped […]