Overall, the November report was good. Unemployment was up 1 tenth. Participation Rate dropped a tenth. PR has been hovering about the same for months. What you are looking at is what The Fed has done with higher Fed Rates. As the Fed Rates drop, U-3 will pickup. We are on the right path. It […]
Press Release: January 2, 2025 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following value put in place construction statistics for November 2024: Total Construction Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from (±1.0 percent)* the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem recently, as we are looking for a rebalancing of the market, with prices abating in existing home sales and inventory increasing, vs. new houses where prices have been slightly declining. Additionally, as usual let me start with the important […]
November 2024 Labor Stats as you can read for yourself. I am interested in seeing how the BLS screwed up on earlier employment reports over a period of time. The graphs show part of that period of time. Everything looks like what it should be. I am not going to start a campaign on what […]
– by New Deal democrat Most of the commentary about Friday’s jobs report for November was positive. By contrast, my summary – in which I averaged the two last reports to take into account the hurricane whipsaw – was much more cautious, as were the takes by a few other commentators I respect, like Ernie Tedeschi. […]
November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]
If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . . – by New Deal democrat […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. More the recent ‘same’ this week: short term and coincident indicators are a little noisy, but continue to say the economic OK. Meanwhile the longer leading indicators are mixed and weighing on future growth. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]
– by New Deal democrat Step away from the ledge, everybody; and pay no attention to the DOOOMers, who are surely out in force this morning: the big increase in initial claims was almost all about Hurricane Helene. By the numbers, initial claims increased 33,000 to 258,000, the highest number since August 2023. The four […]