Partisan Divide?

Per the poll discussed below, only 48 percent of Trump supporters got raises while 72 percent of Biden supporters got raises.  27 percent of Trump supporters had changed jobs while 43 percent of Biden supporters had changed.

Data and Reporting

Again today Paul Krugman said “the average worker’s purchasing power is higher than it was five years ago.”  Dean Baker has also made the same observation, saying “workers in the bottom decile seeing wage gains that outpaced inflation since the pandemic by more than 13.0 percent.”  I trust their linked data, but I must wonder how much work the word ‘average’ is doing in those statements.  Krugman focuses on the partisan difference in perception.  Baker focuses on biased reporting by the media.  I have commented on past pieces by both authors that I am concerned that if you could break down the aggregated data you could well find that many people simply have not shared in the increased income.

I would expect that workers who have changed jobs have gotten much better raises than those who have not changed jobs.  This week I finally found an article which addressed the question.  The article links to a 2022 NPR/Marist poll (pdf) of 1236 adults.  38 percent of workers changed jobs between 2020 and 2022. The poll gives 8 possible reasons for changing.  Better pay was the highest at 32 percent of job changers.  Only 10 percent because of lost job.  Better opportunity, better location, and better hours are distinct positive reasons. 

The poll does not quite confirm my assertion that raises go to job changers, because the answer on whether they got a raise is reported separately.  61 percent reported that they got raises within the previous year.

Both questions are broken down by party, region, income, age, gender, 2020 vote, and metro/suburban/rural areas.  Boomers changed jobs less than Gen Z, but the biggest discrepancy is in the 2020 vote.  Only 48 percent of Trump supporters got raises while 72 percent of Biden supporters got raises.  Only 27 percent of Trump supporter changed jobs while 43 percent of Biden supporters changed jobs.

My Analysis

One thing I learned from 2016 election is that some Trump supporters lie to pollsters.  Perhaps they were lying again and really did get raises.  But the 2016 lies were only a few percent, so I conclude that the poll data show a disaggregation for the partisan difference that Krugman dismisses.  Trump supporters think the economy is worse than it is because they are not participating in the improvements.

Why not?

Reason 1 – pessimistic ignorance.  If they believe the economy is terrible then they may just not look for a new job.

Reason 2 – conservatism.  Are they so conservative that they cannot accept change – certainly not to a new job?

Reason 3 – stuck.  If you have a family and the only way to get a better job is to relocate then there is a major barrier to sharing in economic gains.  This has certainly happened in many areas where industries have closed or moved away.

Reason 4 – ??.  Comments are welcome.

Cart/horse?

Trump certainly appeals to reasons 1-3 with his claim he can put things back.  But does their attitude prevent them from getting a new job, or has difficulty finding a new job given them an attitude?