– by New Deal democrat As usual, next week there will be a dearth of economic data, so I’ll report on construction spending then. In the meantime, we got another poor ISM manufacturing report, with the total index declining to 46.5, the lowest reading this year, while the more leading new orders component increased 1.0 […]
– by New Deal democrat Well, I warned you . . . . I expected a downdraft from the hurricanes, especially Milton, and also the Boeing strike. And boy did we get one! Let me be clear: if there were no special factors, this report would be recessionary, period. And there were some signs of […]
– by New Deal democrat Briefly, NDd is one of the longtime posters at Angry Bear. I have known him for a long time and enjoy reading his commentaries on Labor, Employment, and Income. They are timely reveals and expressing the issues with various parts of the economy. ~~~~~~~ The monthly personal income and spending […]
– by New Deal democrat It appears that, as I suspected earlier this month, the big YoY jump in initial jobless claims was largely due to the effects of the hurricanes, and is now abating. First, for the week initial claims declined another -12,000 to 216,000. The four week moving average declined -2,250 to 236,500. […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, I’ll take a quick look at this morning’s headline GDP numbers for Q3 before passing on to my more important focus on the release’s leading components. Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3. Just like Q2, this is a perfectly good number in line with the […]
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. For several years, my mantra for a lot of statistics has been “deceleration.” Well, in the case of the employment market, we have passed the point where deceleration […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case Shiller continued to show deceleration in this metric which is very important to home buyers. Specifically, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through August, U.S. house prices according to both indexes rose 0.3%. This is a slight […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Ever since – and in response to – the really good jobs report early this month, interest rate yields on bonds have crept back up, giving back most of their summer gains. That puts some pressure on the long leading indicators. Also […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday we got the existing home sales portion of the rebalancing of the housing market, showing sales down further, and price growth attenuation. This morning, we got the new home slice, which was a virtual mirror image. As per usual, while new home sales are only about 10% of the […]
– by New Deal democrat After two weeks of being highly elevated YoY, initial claims returned to a more “normal” range this week, as except for Florida, hurricane disruptions largely disappeared. For the week initial claims declined -15,000 to 227,000. The four week moving average increased 2,000 to 238,500. With the typical one week delay, […]