Coronavirus dashboard for November 8: the new alphabet soup of variants fails to generate a new wave (so far) – by New Deal democrat Biobot has not updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6 month lows both nationwide: and in all 4 Census regions: As expected, the CDC’s variant update […]
Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections – by New Deal democrat No economic news today while we await tomorrow’s big inflation report (Hint: shelter inflation is going to continue to be the big driver); and I think maybe we had a little political event yesterday, so let me make a few brief […]
Deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled – by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon, which will tell us about the state of credit, but is anticipated in much more timely – i.e., weekly – fashion by the Chicago Fed’s […]
“Weekly Indicators for October 31 – November 4″ at Seeking Alpha. – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Data doesn’t move relentlessly in one direction, and this week there was some improvement in some of the indicators I follow. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up […]
October jobs report: late cycle deceleration and deterioration – by New Deal democrat With the sharp increases in interest rates, and the complete stalling of real consumer spending measured YoY, since early this year I have expected employment to follow suit, decelerating over time to a stall. And the three month average in employment gains […]
The Fed appears determined to cause a Volcker-like recession – by New Deal democrat Yesterday the Fed raised rates another 0.75%. In the past 8 months, the Fed has raised rates a total of 3.75%. This is one of the steepest increases in interest rates ever, only exceeded by the pace of the two 1970s […]
Jobless claims: steady as she goes by New Deal democrat [ Special programming note: yesterday’s Fed action, and more important the statements made afterward, merit special attention. I will put up a special post on that later today.] Initial jobless claims remained at their recent low level, down -1,000 from one week ago to 217,000. […]
September JOLTS report: despite the increase in openings, the decelerating trend in the game of reverse musical chairs remains intact – by New Deal democrat In 2021 and earlier this year, the jobs market was typified by a game of reverse musical chairs in which there were more chairs (available jobs) than players (job seekers). […]
Manufacturing, construction, and job openings all show an economy under stress – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month with important manufacturing and construction data. Additionally, the JOLTS report for September was also released. The ISM manufacturing index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders […]
While I was away . . . Personal income and spending for September Real personal spending increased +0.3% in September, while real income increased less than 0.1%, rounding to unchanged: Since May 2021, after the last round of pandemic stimulus expired, real spending is up 3.3%; but real income is down -2.0%: Real personal spending […]