Weekly Indicators for December 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging on by the proverbial skin of their teeth. I don’t think they roll over until gas prices stop declining. In any event, clicking over and […]
The status of the coincident indicators – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, […]
November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]
Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November – by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Nominal average wages for non-supervisory workers rose a strong 0.7% in […]
November CPI: Thank you, gas prices! No thank you, owners’ equivalent rent – by New Deal democrat Just like producer prices as reported last Friday, consumer prices for November confirm the inflection point of last June. Thank you, lower gas prices! Here’s what total and core (ex-food and energy) inflation look like, normed to 100 […]
A brief overview of the current state of the economy – by New Deal democrat This week we get the final most important data of 2022, with consumer prices tomorrow and industrial production and retail sales Thursday. The Fed will also be making its final rate hike decision of the year. Next week and the […]
Weekly Indicators for December 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most noteworthy trend over the past several months has been the almost relentless deterioration in the YoY measures of consumer spending and employment. That trend continued last week. As usual, clicking […]
“November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels“ – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The news was mainly good, although not good enough to likely dissuade the Fed from its current course […]
– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet Initial jobless claims is one of the few remaining positive short leading indicators. But as I’ve noted for the past several weeks, the trend is troublesome. This week initial claims rose 4,000 to 230,000, and the 4 week moving average […]
Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: the first winter wave of endemicity begins – by New Deal democrat COVID is well on its way to becoming endemic, with a significant background level similar to what we have experienced in the last 8 months, and a surge during the winter months when people spend more time socializing […]