– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today. Since I didn’t publish a link to my “Weekly Indicators” post up at Seeking Alpha over the weekend, here it is now. Left to its own devices, as I’ve written a number of times recently, the economy is in “steady as she goes” mode, with few […]

 – by New Deal democrat It’s that time of month again for my favorite indicator for the consumption side of the economy: retail sales have been tracked for over 75 years. When they are lower YoY, that has historically been a good (not perfect) indicator that a recession is near. That’s because that same 75-year […]

– by New Deal democrat Now that we are well past the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 last week, and the four-week average declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the usual one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million: On […]

January CPI: a new paradigm, with the reappearance of some old suspects  – by New Deal democrat Needless to say, January’s increase of 0.5% in consumer prices was not welcome. And there was a changing of the guard somewhat, as several of the old suspects (food and energy) made new appearances. Some of the spike […]

 – by New Deal democrat While we are waiting for new economic data tomorrow, let me pick up on an issue I closed with yesterday: while manufacturing has turned down, goods production in the US economy is being held up by construction, and in particular residential construction. Given the severe hike in mortgage rates as well […]

– by New Deal democrat There’s no new significant news until Wednesday, so let’s catch up graphically with a few important items from Friday’s employment report for January. As I wrote then, probably the most important developments weren’t in the monthly numbers, but rather the annual revisions to both the Establishment and Household Surveys.  For […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Mainly more of the same ; the majority of short leading and coincident indicators are positive, while the long leading background is ever so slowly improving. As usual, clicking over and reading will reward you with knowing the state of the economy […]

January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies, but monthly numbers are close to pre-recessionary  – by New Deal democrat My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market.  Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims […]

 – by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading indicators for the economy in the next few quarters. But to get it out of the way, real GDP increased at a 2.3% rate in the last quarter of […]