Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Coronavirus dashboard for August 3: is this what endemicity looks like?

Coronavirus dashboard for August 3: is this what endemicity looks like?  – by New Deal democrat Confirmed cases nationwide (dotted line below) declined to 121,700, still within their recent 120-130,000 range. Deaths (solid line) are also steady at 431, within their recent 400-450 range as well: Hospitalizations have plateaued in the past 10 days reported […]

Coronavirus dashboard for July 5: no sign of a BA.4&5 wave in cases yet

Coronavirus dashboard for July 5: no sign of a BA.4&5 wave in cases yet, as the next variant has appeared in India  – by New Deal democrat I haven’t done a Coronavirus dashboard in a couple of weeks, and there have been a few developments, so let’s take a look. First of all, the BA.4&5 […]

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20: signs of a peak in BA.2.12.1 in bellwether jurisdictions; is BA.4/BA.5 next? With no significant economic data today, let’s take a look at where the BA.2.12.1 COVID wave is. Nationwide cases (thin line below) have increased about 3.5x from their bottom of roughly 26,700 five weeks ago, to just over […]

Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal

Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal – because you can only die once, COVID-19 is still a pandemic and will gradually transition to an endemic. A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations and an increasing percentage of the population already infected, the virus would wane into […]

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases:  and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and […]

Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron

Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron In the last several days, the 7 day average of cases in the US has increased slightly from  30,700 to 32,700. The rate of decline w/w has decelerated to only 10%. Meanwhile, deaths have finally declined to slightly below 1000 at 995. […]

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims […]

How “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data

Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not.The original story out of South Africa was that Omicron was extremely mild. Despite a huge spike in […]

Where we are now, and where we are probably going

Coronavirus dashboard for year-end 2021: the Graph of the Year, where we are now, and where we are probably going At the end of the 2nd year of the pandemic, a little self-assessment of what I got right and wrong, where we are and where we are probably going. The one thing I got wrong […]