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Coronavirus dashboard for June 21: watching the States with flat or increasing rates of new cases

Coronavirus dashboard for June 21: watching the States with flat or increasing rates of new cases

For the past week I have been sounding the alarm about the economic impact of the “delta” variant of COVID. We are probably already beginning to see its impact on the case count in several States, with many more primed to join the pack, so that is what I want to focus on today.


To begin with, let’s compare the 3 countries that have had the most aggressive vaccination programs: the US, UK, and Israel:


Figure 1

Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: big progress since 1 year ago; big “Delta” challenge still ahead

Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: big progress since 1 year ago; big “Delta” challenge still ahead

One year ago today, in my Coronavirus Dashboard for June 17, here was my graph of cases



Which I described as:

As shown in the graph above, [after Arizona at 214 per million population] the remaining “top 10” are all States in the Confederacy, High Plains, and Mountain West. In order, (showing rates of new infections per million as of June 15 in parentheses) they are: Alabama (156), Arkansas (150), South Carolina (125), Louisiana (127), North Carolina (117), Utah (102), Mississippi (98), Florida (83), and Iowa (83).

One year later, the scale of the current pandemic is an order or more of magnitude lower. But the regions with the worst outbreaks remain the same (sadly, ingrained behavior patterns are incredibly resistant to change).
Let’s begin the current situation with CNN’s graph of vaccination rates in the 50 States plus DC and PR:

Coronavirus dashboard for June 9: the high correlation between partisan lean, vaccination rates, and new cases

Coronavirus dashboard for June 9: the high correlation between partisan lean, vaccination rates, and new cases

No big economic news today, so I wanted to follow up on Monday’s post, in which I described the correlation between the number of new COVID cases and States in which there were high vaccination rates vs. ones with low rates. 
The both sad and maddening point is, vaccination rates correlate strongly with partisan lean, and so do the present level of COVID cases.


First, here is a graph of vaccination rates by partisan lean (via the NYT):

Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States

Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States

The drive towards “herd immunity” via vaccination has slowed to a crawl. The slowing is almost entirely driven by Trump-voting States in the South and West. Those Idiotic States are continuing to suffer from an ongoing pandemic, while in the Biden-voting States of the Northeast, Midwest, and California, the pandemic has all but ended.
Here are the details.


Daily vaccinations have declined precipitously in the past 7 weeks, and are now only about 1 million per day:



If the US were to stay at 1 million per day, it would take the rest of the year to get everyone vaccinated. And unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that the rate of new vaccinations won’t continue to decline.


As a result, as shown in the graph below, there is every reason to believe that the US will tip out at roughly 60% of the population having received at least one dose, and only 50% fully vaccinated (note this includes all children including those under 12 for whom the vaccines have not been approved). (For the record, I still think we will achieve 70%+ of all adults having immunity between vaccinations plus those previously infected with antibodies).

Coronavirus dashboard for June 2: most of US approaches herd immunity threshold; COVID still spreading among the remaining idiots

Coronavirus dashboard for June 2: most of US approaches herd immunity threshold; COVID still spreading among the remaining idiots

In the past week new COVID-19 cases declined almost 30%, by about 7,000 to 17,289/day; however, deaths actually increased by about 10% to an average of 589/day, mainly due to a data dump by California 5 and 6 days ago – thus I expect a new low in deaths within the next several days:



Figure 1

Total deaths are 595,213. Over 60% of all adults have received at least one dose, and over half are fully vaccinated. Slightly over half of the US population, including all children, has received at least one dose.

Coronavirus dashboard for May 24: 3 weeks to “0” new cases?

Coronavirus dashboard for May 24: 3 weeks to 0 new cases?

No, that won’t happen. But, even so, that is the current trajectory. Let’s start with the overview:
Total *confirmed* cases: 33,117,737Total deaths: 589,893

Note that there are many more cases that we don’t know about because the people were never tested. Since about half of cases appear to be only mildly or non-symptomatic, an additional 10% of the population having been infected seems like a reasonable guess. And excess deaths for 2020 ran closer to 900,000, so we may also be missing many deaths.

Before I go further, let me address an article that appeared over the weekend in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that an “intelligence source” had confirmed that it was likely that the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. That report seems to have convinced both Nate Silver and Matt Yglesias.

A pretty good takedown of that article appears here:

Coronavirus dashboard: entering the home stretch?

Coronavirus dashboard: entering the home stretch?

G*d willing, I will only feel the need to update this information for another month or two. The US is simply making great progress on all fronts, and there are no new outbreaks in any of the States.


Close to 40% of the entire US population is totally vaccinated, and almost 50% has received at least one dose:



As a result, both cases and deaths are lower than their troughs last summer, and are at 10 to 11 month lows. Deaths are down about 85% from peak, and cases down 88%:

Coronavirus dashboard for May 10: stay the course!

Coronavirus dashboard for May 10: stay the course!

The story in the US continues to be that vaccinations work!
As of today, the 7 day moving average of new cases is down to a new 8 month low of 40,873 per day. The 7 day moving average of deaths is down to a new 11 month low of 667:



Cases are down 5/6’s from their wintertime peak. Deaths are down over 80%.


And cases are declining, sometimes strongly so, in almost all the 10 worst States, including Michigan, where they are down over 60% (and look how well one of the best States, California, is doing!):

Coronavirus dashboard for April 26: reasons for optimism all around

Coronavirus dashboard for April 26: reasons for optimism all around

Let’s start with an overview of total cases and deaths in the US:

1.7 in every 1,000 Americans has died of COVID-19. 9.7% of the entire population has had a *confirmed* infection. Probably another 5% to 10% have been infected, but were never tested.

Coronavirus dashboard for April 19: Much great progress, and some problem children

Coronavirus dashboard for April 19: Much great progress, and some problem children

 

As an initial note, there is no significant economic data until Thursday this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two….

Today let’s take a look at the latest coronavirus information.

There’s much progress on the vaccination front. I’ll let the CDC’s numbers speak for themselves:



Here’s the information graphically by age group as of last week: