– by New Deal democrat Martin Wolf of the Financial Times has called T—-p’s tariffs “an act of warfare against the entire world.” Perhaps it is not surprising that in the past week, the entire world has responded. Among other things,  per Eric Michael Garcia, “China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In this time of exogenous shock to the economy caused by the whims of one man, it is especially important to keep laser-focused on the hard data. And the first hard data that will tell you what is happening is the high […]

 – by New Deal democrat  With yesterday’s CPI report, we can update two important measures of ordinary American workers’ well-being, that also serve as short leading indicators: real average hourly earnings and real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls.  There have been two months since the pandemic lockdowns five years ago, including last June, where there were very slight […]

Jobless claims continue to reflect slowly expanding economy  – by New Deal democrat I dealt with the March CPI report yesterday; I will update jobless claims today. On a weekly basis, initial claims rose 4,000 to 223,000. The four week moving average also was at 223,000, unchanged from last week. And with the typical one week […]

This is the report we have been waiting for . . .  – by New Deal democrat In March, with the exception of the usual problem child of shelter, almost every other component of consumer prices was tame – except for meat and eggs. And even shelter continued to decelerate. If Jerome Powell hadn’t tied […]

As outlined in Monday’s report, NDd will cover the impact of a tariff caused recession in his daily reports. Daily T—-p tariff recession watch: no evidence of hard data deterioration to start  – by New Deal democrat Are the T—-p tariffs quickly putting the US into a recession?  As I wrote yesterday, there are two daily […]

Angry Bear will continue to present my fellow writer and acquaintance who I met at Pomo’s Pizzeria in Phoenix while he was on vacation. Great pizza, wine, and conversation. “Is a T—-p Tariff recession starting? My plan for real-time daily, weekly, and intramonth updates“  – by New Deal democrat Normally on the Monday after the […]

– by New Deal democrat My question over the past year has been whether “deceleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn. With the stupefying economic moves by the new Administration, looking for hard data indicating the onset […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock market crash on Thursday and Friday, my rating for the short leading indicator of the S&P 500 is still “neutral.” That’s because the market is extremely volatile. There was an all-time […]

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three-month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In March the expansionary headline and new […]