“Every time inflation went up more than aggregate payrolls YoY, it marked the beginning of a recession +/- 2 months.“ More fuel to help consumers deal with tariffs: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls likely increased again in April  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators is both a significant update from last week’s jobs […]

Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October  – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer […]