– by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. And this morning’s report for […]
– by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because their negative slant in 2022 was completely overcome by the hurricane force tailwind of the unspooling supply chain kinks. By that time the Fed had already raised rates more steeply than at […]
Weekly Indicators for June 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the indicators, there is evidence of a downturn in consumer spending compared with the tariff front-running of several months ago, as well as a continued decline […]
– by New Deal democrat It is very difficult to track the impacts of Tariff-palooza! on the US supply chain, due to delays in any sort of accurate reporting. But below is the best overall picture I have been able to decipher. Mainly the delay is focused on the trucking industry, because rail is very concentrated […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless this level was only equaled once and exceeded once in the past year. The four week moving average increased 5,000 to 240,500, the highest number since September 2023. With the typical one week delay, continuing […]
– by New Deal democrat The story of consumer prices in May is the same as it has been for the past several months: virtually everything except for shelter costs, and the even more lagging sector of transportation services, were somnolent. If the Fed wanted to, it could have declared victory many months ago. To […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no new important data again today, so let me update a few high frequency indicators in which I am looking for signs of weakness. First, Redbook’s consumer retail sales weekly report came out this morning, showing a 4.7% YoY increase. This is one of the 8 lowest increases in the […]
– by New Deal democrat As per usual for the week after the employment report, there is no new data until Wednesday’s CPI report. So let’s take a further look at some of the information from Friday’s report, as well as several other reports from last week in the goods-producing and sales sector. In the 40 […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Very slowly the effects of price increases and supply disruptions from the tariffs are making their way into the data. This week was the first suggestion it may have begun to affect consumer spending. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you […]
– by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of tariff-palooza! So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating its impact. This month’s […]