Weekly Indicators for April 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident indicators of recession, but at the same time, the downturn has been telegraphed for so long that some leading indicators are on the verge of […]
The economic tailwind from last autumn’s declining gas prices is probably over – by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I discussed how gas prices, with an assist from higher stock prices leading to stock options being cashed in, was the primary reason why the coincident indicators hadn’t rolled over yet. I wanted to explore that […]
Jobless claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag, while continuing claims shade closer to crimson – by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue in the graph below) continued their recent track into recession caution territory this week, as they rose 5,000 to 245,000, 12.9% higher YoY and the 5th time in the last 7 weeks […]
Coincident indicators hold on, mainly due to improvement in gas prices YoY – by New Deal democrat I’ve been paying particular attention lately to the coincident indicators, because the leading indicators have telegraphed a recession for about half a year – so why isn’t it here yet??? A good representation of coincident indicators remaining positive […]
New housing construction appears to have bottomed; but expect further declines in construction employment ahead – by New Deal democrat Pointing your attention to NDd’s calling out of the economic signs leading to job declines. ~~~~~~~~ For the past few months, I’ve noted that new home sales, which while very volatile frequently are the first […]
Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based […]
Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues. Perhaps most significantly, YoY consumer spending as measured by Redbook sank to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of only +1.5%. But other coincident indicators in particular, […]
Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March – by New Deal democrat Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to determine whether the economy is in expansion or recession. Because the reporting of […]
Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was […]
March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer – by New Deal democrat After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales […]