April industrial production looks great! – until you account for the March revisions – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the revisions were very important. In April total production increased 0.5% from March, but March itself was revised downward by -0.5%, so […]
Weekly Indicators for May 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was more slow deterioration in the coincident indicators, but interestingly a bounce in several of the short leading indicators, particularly in the weakness of the US$ (which paradoxically is a positive, […]
Real hourly and aggregate wages update; plus further comments on consumer and producer inflation – by New Deal democrat Let’s update some inflation-related information. First of all, real hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased less than 0.1% in April. They are up about 3% from just before the pandemic, and also up a little over 1% […]
Yellow flag from initial jobless claims turns a little more orangey – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 264,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 6,000 to 245,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 12,000 to 1.813 million: Note that both measures of initial claims are at […]
Inflation ex-shelter increasing at 1.0% annualized rate since last June; core inflation with actual house prices only up 3.0% YoY – by New Deal democrat Two months ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. With revisions, the […]
Credit conditions worsen, and likely to worsen further due to Debt Ceiling Debacle II – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, which measures credit on offer by banks, and the demand for credit by their customers, was released yesterday afternoon for Q1, and the news – unsurprisingly – was not good. Credit conditions […]
Scenes from the April employment report: the Fed just can’t kill the employment “beast” – by New Deal democrat There’s no economic news this morning, so let’s take a closer look at some important trends from last Friday’s April jobs report . As I and many others wrote, an important theme was that the deceleration […]
run75441’s footnote to NDd Weekly Analysis . . . The analysis by NDd is one of the most thorough ones, I read on a weekly basis. It sums up the week casting the numbers for the week in comparison to what is going on economically. What I see happening in the economy, NDd brings to […]
April jobs report: deceleration continues, with sharp downward revisions to previous months’ gains – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. While the deceleration in growth did occur – and substantially […]
Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 3,500 to 239,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -38,000 to 1.805 million: This is right in the […]