– by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were almost no changes to any of the high frequency indicators in any timeframe last week. Despite that, below the surface, there has been a very gradual weakening of a number of important indicators in both the monthly and weekly data.  […]

 – by New Deal democrat From the Declaration of Independence: When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and […]

 – by New Deal democrat In addition to the jobs report, because this is Thursday we also got the latest jobless claims numbers. To wit, initial claims declined -4,000 to 233,000, and the four week moving average declined -3,750 to 241,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims were unchanged at 1.964 million: The more […]

 – by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of this Administration, particularly about tariffs. So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating […]

– by New Deal democrat As promised, let me parse the JOLTS survey for May, which was reported yesterday.  As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs. In 2024 the data were most consistent with a “soft landing,” but the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, […]

 – by New Deal democrat I concluded last month’s post on construction spending by writing “Putting this report together with this morning’s other report on manufacturing from ISM, it appears the goods-producing part of the economy as a whole is very slightly contracting. It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in a decline […]

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start out the month with reports on both manufacturing and construction. Ill post separately on construction. Additionally, the May JOLTS reports was posted, but I’ll discuss that tomorrow. So let’s start with the ISM manufacturing report, a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished […]

 – by New Deal democrat  This week data arrives in two batches: a smaller batch (ISM manufacturing and construction spending) tomorrow, and a huge tranche (nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, ISM services, and factory orders) on Thursday. Which means I might take Wednesday off, and/or delay reporting on some of Thursday’s data until Friday. In the meantime, […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There have been a number of reversals since April, most notably the stock market going from a 12 month low to a new all-time high, but also the front-running by consumers apparent in the weekly Redbook report has also reversed, from over 7% […]

 – by New Deal democrat The last significant data for the first half of 2025, personal income and spending for May, was released this morning. It was the first month that reflected the impact of Tariff-palooza!, and boy howdy was it impacted. Not a single metric was positive. One metric was unchanged; everything else was negative. […]