– by New Deal democrat Once again there is no significant economic news on a Monday, so let’s take a look at the important data I am especially interested in later this week. Consumption leads employment, and since consumption is about 70% of the US economy, any downturn in consumption is important, as it directly affects […]
– by New Deal democrat There was no big economic news today, despite the report on durable goods, which declined -9.3% in June — after a 16.5% advance in May. Simply put, it was all about aircraft orders from Boeing. Take out transportation, and orders rose 0.6% in May and 0.2% in June. The more important […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on new home sales for June indicated that sales continue to be rangebound, YoY prices continue to decline, and inventory of homes for sale continue to rise. This complicates the story of rebalancing between new and existing homes. To recapitulate, while new home sales are the most leading measure […]
– by New Deal democrat Last week I suggested that there might have been a break in the trend of higher YoY jobless claims, but there was not enough evidence yet. It is fair to say that this week’s report supplied that evidence. Initial claims declilned another -4,000 to 217,000, the lowest weekly number since mid-April. […]
– by New Deal democrat Housing data for June resumed this morning with existing home sales. Let me start with my usual caveat: although they typically constitute about 90% of all sales are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they have much less economic […]
– by New Deal democrat New economic data will resume tomorrow. Since I haven’t updated the impact of Tariff-palooza! on transport and spending in awhile, let’s take a look at that. The “tip of the spear” is container shipping. Here’s a graph of traffic at the busiest ports in the US, from CNBC: At the busiest […]
– by New Deal democrat Once again there is a hiatus in the data for a couple of days. So let’s take a look at two of my favorite labor indicators: real average hourly wages and real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. First, here are real average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers: These were unchanged in […]
– by New Deal democrat As we get towards the end of the month, the data from the important leading housing sector begins to be reported. This morning’s report on housing permits, starts, and construction continues the trend that has been in place for several years. For the month, permits (gold in the graph below) […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and retail sales are the most timely monthly indicator of consumption. Indeed, population-adjusted real retail sales in the past have tended to turn negative one year or more before a recession has begun. In June, nominally retail sales rose a strong 0.6%. But because consumer prices rose 0.3%, […]
– by New Deal democrat Probably the brightest spot in the entire economy right now is initial jobless claims. Contrary to the general theme of deceleration which has been the case for several years now, initial claims appear to be breaking trend in the positive direction. Specifically, initial claims declined -7,000 last week to 221,000, their […]