July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend – by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued the recent trend since gas prices started declining over a year ago. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7%. Since […]
This is the Big Story: a 100+ year near-record decline in commodity prices is enabling continued record wage growth and employment – by New Deal democrat No important economic data today, so let me elaborate on the matter of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., the decline in inflation without a decline in growth. I’m going to argue […]
Missed this analysis on Friday. July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place – by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the producer price index, but because the steep decline in producer prices has been such a boon to businesses, and a big tailwind for the economy as […]
Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in particular with the coincident indicators. Buoyed by the big downturn in commodity prices, and somnolence of consumer prices ex-fictitious shelter, […]
July CPI: almost everything except fictitious shelter costs are getting close to the Fed’s comfort range – by New Deal democrat Gasoline prices and fictitious shelter prices are once again moving in opposite directions, in a direct reversal of what the situation had been in the past 12 months. During late 2022 into this year, energy […]
Initial jobless claims: a little soft, but continued expansion signaled – by New Deal democrat I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week to 248,000. The more important 4 week moving average rose 2,750 to 231,000. With a one week delay, continuing claims […]
What to look for in tomorrow’s CPI and Friday’s PPI – by New Deal democrat We’re still in the post-jobs report lull in economic news today. That will end tomorrow with initial jobless claims, and also CPI and PPI tomorrow and Friday respectively. I always watch CPI, but I believe the PPI is uniquely important […]
Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived – by New Deal democrat As I wrote at the beginning of this year, I would only post Coronavirus updates if there appeared to be something significant happening. And there is. There is a completely new alphabet soup of XBB subvariants that are competing with one […]
Weekly Indicators for July 31 – August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other interest rates are up close to their peaks. This will operate to slow […]
July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items […]