– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]
– by New Deal democrat The ISM manufacturing and services reports assume heightened importance this month in view of the continuing federal government shutdown. These two, along with the regional Feds’ manufacturing and services reports, are our best sketch of the economy until the more thorough federal reports resume (hopefully?) We already have the regional Feds’ […]
– by New Deal democrat As I’ve reiterated several times this month, the two items of information I am paying the most attention to in the absence of official federal economic data are the Regional Fed Banks and the ISM, for both of their manufacturing and services reports. I should add that earlier this week […]
– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of almost all economic statistics from the federal government, one of the most important remaining sources is the Fed and its regional banks. All 5 of them that publish manufacturing and services reports have now done so. Which means that we have a decent placeholder proxy for […]
– by New Deal democrat Despite the government shutdown, the FHFA did publish its repeat home sales index this morning. And since the S&P Case Shiller index is from a private entity, that was published as well. Between those two and the NAR’s existing home sales report, we still have pretty good visibility into that 90% […]
– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This is a good time for a reminder that very little of the high frequency data has been affected by the federal government shutdown, because almost all of it comes from the Fed or regional Feds, States, and private sources. That data continues […]
– by New Deal democrat Wow, some actual new economic data on which to report – how refreshing! To be clear, the only reason this was reported is that it was necessary for the calculation of the annual cost of living increases to Social Security checks. Had these been frozen there would have been a “million […]
– by New Deal democrat With the continuing desert of official data, the NAR’s existing home sales report – which normally is of secondary importance – temporarily becomes our best look at the housing market. To repeat what I’ve mentioned an number of times in the past, after the Fed began hiking rates in 2022, mortgage […]
– by New Deal democrat The government shutdown is continuing. The only significant national economic news will be the NAR’s existing home sales report on Thursday. Additionally, the remaining regional Fed surveys will come at the end of this week or next week. And, as I am still on vacation, don’t be surprised if I play […]