– by New Deal democrat Typically the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports; but this morning the construction spending report for August became the first casualty of the government shutdown.  The ISM manufacturing report has been a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished importance since the turn of […]

 – by New Deal democrat In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft landing” jobs scenario. In the August report released this morning, the trend weakened slightly. As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into […]

– by New Deal democrat Last month the indexes of repeat home sales from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller were the final confirmation that the housing market was in deflation. That continued in this morning’s reports for July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through June, both the Case-Shiller national index […]

NDd’s Weekly Indicators for September 22 – 26  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Not much change this week, but there are signs that consumer spending is beginning to cool off again. U of M adds to NDd’s comment: “Weakening consumer views of labor markets are not necessarily a […]

 – by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. In the past several months, I have looked for a rebound from April and May’s “Liberation Day” aftermath of a cutback in spending. In July […]

 – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road today, and won’t have time to update anything until tonight. So here is what to look for in initial and continuing jobless claims. Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the […]

New home sales: despite the noisy sharp increase in August, the last pre-recession metrics are firmly negative  – by New Deal democrat Have I mentioned before that new home sales, while perhaps the most leading of all the housing data, suffer from being very noisy and heavily revised? Yes, I think I have, just about […]

– by New Deal democrat In addition to my system of long and short leading indicators, and the weekly high frequency data, the third system I use to mark to market my views of the economy is what i call “the consumer nowcast.” Introduction I have various systems for tracking the economy — including high-frequency weekly […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Along with the continuing resilience of consumer spending, which I wrote about yesterday, the other surprise in the data has been the strong rebound in manufacturing indexes in the past 45 days, as evidenced by several of the regional Fed situation reports […]

 – by New Deal democrat One of this things that has puzzled me for the last few months is why consumer spending has remained so strong in the face of so many headwinds in the economy, some from horrible policy coming out of Washington, some embedded in the long leading and short leading sectors.  There is […]