– by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an actual census of 95%+ of all employers, who must report new employees for purposes like unemployment and disability benefits. Because of this, it is used for the final revisions, a/k/a bench-marks, for monthly […]
– by New Deal democrat So, first some bad news: my tech issue has resurfaced, so only links to graphs rather than graphs themselves, hopefully just for a day or two. Basically, unless I keep a bar up open to the blog page, Google and Apple sever their “handshake,” and I have to start from […]
February jobs report: Main Street lays an egg – by New Deal democrat I described last month as “the month the birds came home to roost. . . . In particular, the *entire* gains over the past year were reduced from 584,000 to 181,000 – an average of only 15,000 jobs gained per month.” Well, this […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. As a reminder, I pay attention to these because they are a good short leading barometer of the economy in general, and the jobs market in particular. And the news this week continued to reflect the “new regime” of lower YoY claims […]
– by New Deal democrat If Monday’s ISM manufacturing report was good (but with a dose of inflation), today’s ISM services report for February was even better (but also with a dose of inflation). Together they negative the likelihood of an economic downturn in the next several months (geopolitical idiocy aside). Let’s take a look. […]
If you have been reading and earlier commentary Oil Prices are Up, you will get a pretty idea of what is happening with Oil Prices since Trump decided to bomb Iran. Just to point out, here are the top three countries by oil reserves. Top 3 Breakdown: 1. Venezuela ($\sim$303 billion barrels), 2. Saudi Arabia […]
– by New Deal democrat Most official data series remain about one month behind their normal schedule, despite the government shutdown having ended over three months ago. Thus the ISM manufacturing and services reports, as well as the regional Fed manufacturing and services reports, remain the most timely overall barometers of the economy. In the past […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last week commodity prices, and in particular oil, rose sharply again – probably due to what has been unfolding in the Middle East. And the US$ is still losing value. Meanwhile withholding tax payments have faltered somewhat again. Good times! As usual, clicking […]
– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main object of this post, there was a little kerfluffle in the financial markets this morning about a “hot” producer price index number. Specifically, PPI for final demand increased 0.5% in January. Commodity prices also increased 0.3%. The YoY% changes were 2.8%, although raw commodity […]
– by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]