I have been looking at the data recently to find economic series that would quickly reflect the impact of rising tariffs on the consumer. One is Retail Sales: GAFO.  Think of it as department store type merchandise  — goods excluding autos, food and energy. It is reported every month in both the Census retail sales […]

There seems to be some confusion about the impact of Census employment of temporary and intermittent employment for the 2020 Census. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has a table showing the monthly  employment for Special Census workers. You can find it at: BLS – Special Census Workers The table also has the data from the […]

For seven years from 2012 to 2018 the monthly payroll employment showed a solid trend of around 200,000 gains each and every month.  If it was much above or below this trend, analysts found some excuse to explain the difference and expected the off-trend observation to be quickly reversed.  So far this year most analysts […]

As of the second quarter the year over year percent change in real GDP is 2.3%.  Virtually everyone refers to this as strong. Why?  By historic standards 2.3% real GDP growth is subpar. It is below the long term growth rate of the economy using virtually any widely accepted estimate of trend or potential growth. […]

It is standard analysis to see real and nominal imports as a share of GDP quoted to estimate the importance of imports in the economy. Currently that shows nominal imports are about  15% of GDP and real imports are some 18% of real GDP. But I suspect that this comparison understates the role of imports […]

While the yield curve turning negative is getting a lot of attention and seems to be the main excuse for yesterdays stock market drop, there are other financial indicators that are also signaling weaker economic growth ahead. The primary one is quality spreads as the yield on corporate bonds are rising relative to treasuries.  This […]

Since the early 1990s, I published this chart every month on the back cover of my publication until I retired a couple of years ago.  I thought it was a great piece of marketing to remind readers that I was a long run bull on interest rates. Readers might not pay much attention or remember […]

Trump should not forget that the Chinese leadership does not have to hold an election in 2020. I wonder who this gives an advantage in the trade war.  

Note how the survey data is weakening more than the payroll data The survey data tends to lead the payroll: In 2019 payroll employment —  what Wall Street pays attention to –is the weakest since 2012. Moreover, hours worked has flattened out:

Under Trump the federal deficit has rebounded to some 4.4 % of GDP  — it is the same whether you look at it quarterly or monthly data as this chart does.  The monthly estimate is calculated by Haver Analytics. So much for the tax cut paying for itself.   The shaded areas are by Presidential […]