In a low inflation world firms tend to raise prices once a year — typically in the first quarter or the first quarter of their fiscal year. Consequently, over half of the annual increase in the not seasonally adjusted core CPI occurs in the first quarter and doubling the first quarter increase gives an amazingly […]
Trump and his administration love to brag about the number of jobs created since he became president. But the only reason he gets away with claiming that a record number of jobs have been created since he took office is the poor job the press does reporting economic data. It only takes a quick glance […]
Import and export growth and an expanding trade deficit do not need a strong dollar. We have had some discussions about dollar weakness and questions for those of us who expected the federal deficit to lead to a larger current account deficit through a strong dollar. I’ve looked at the data in a different way […]
With the market falling like it did over the past week it may prove valuable to look at the PE and some other economic reports. In my PE model the market became overvalued in December and January. The last observation is at the market close on Thursday, 8 February 2018. the previous two observation are […]
Trade was a significant factor in the weak GDP report today and as usual when this happens you see many comments that do not understand why imports are a negative in calculating GDP. We do not directly calculate GDP. Rather, we calculate consumption and adjust that for trade and inventories to obtain GDP indirectly. To […]
For the first time since the Great Recession my wage equation says average hourly earnings growth should be higher than the actual data shows. Moreover, the fitted value is rising sharply. Each of the three variables in the equation — the unemployment rate, capacity utilization and inflation expectations — is now pushing the fitted value […]
Over the past decade, thanks to fracking, the US has approached self-sufficiency in oil. Since 2008 the trade deficit in oil fell from over half of the overall trade deficit to under 10% in 2016. Surprisingly, however, the massive decline in the oil deficit did not […]
Trump is claiming he can restore coal mining to its former glory by reversing the new regulations that Obama enacted. Obvious he has no idea what the history of employment in coal mining is. Just note that it peaked in 1923. Update: Today the NY Times had a very good article on coal […]