This is my oldest son the weekend of the Apollo moon landing. The whole country was glued to their TVs that week. Figure 1 The TV was about the state of the art 50 years ago and my brother, the photo journalist, took the photo. In the pre-digital era he mostly worked in black and […]
Well by attacking the group Trump got the press to completely forget about the refugees on the southern border. You would think that after all this time the media would learn to deal with his misdirection.
Friday evening the S&P 500 closed at 3013.77, up 20.2 % year to date. But much of that gain is just recovering from the drop in late 2019, as it is only up some 3.4% from September, 2019. This is the first time the S&P closed above 3000 and people are wondering if the market […]
Everybody and their brother has an opinion about the direction of long bond yields so it should be OK for me to stick my two cents worth in. This chart of the composite of all long bond yields versus the long wave is one I published every month on the back cover of my monthly […]
You can not use inflation data like the CPI to compare living cost is one location to another. So the BEA has constructed a database of Regional Price Parities ( RPP) that allow you do do that for all states and the some 383 Standard Metropolitan Areas in the USA. I was preparing to show […]
When the market is up, Trump likes to credit it to his economic policies and when the market is down he likes to find someone else to blame, like the Fed. After being in office for some two years it is time enough to either give him credit or grief and to compare him to […]
Does anyone know why coal production is falling out of bed? It is down some 40% from its August level. But coal employment is still near its’ recent peak, which implies that productivity is horrible. I suspect the problem is exports to China. Maybe someone needs to ask Trump about this.
The real trade deficit ( million 2012 $) increased from $81,558 in February to $ 82,054 in March. The March observation was between the January and February data points so it was not large enough to generate a significant change in imports 0.58 percentage point contribution to first quarter real GDP growth. In the […]
Based on the 5 May 2019 close the S&P 500 PE on trailing operating earnings is 18.25. That places it at the bottom of my fair value band that is based largely on long term treasury bond yields. We can each have out own theories, but it appears to be that the market is correcting […]
One important factor to keep in mind when thinking about the economy is that energy’s share of personal consumption expenditure is now 4%, or about half of what it was in the late 1970s-early 1980s.