WHAT IS HAPPENING TO COAL PRODUCTION ?
Does anyone know why coal production is falling out of bed? It is down some 40% from its August level.
But coal employment is still near its’ recent peak, which implies that productivity is horrible.
I suspect the problem is exports to China.
Maybe someone needs to ask Trump about this.
low priced natural gas for one. utilities have been switching. a chart of nat gas production would show the inverse..
value of year to date coal exports: $1,607 million same time last year $1,778 million.
Exhibit 7 https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-05/trad0319.pdf
No one wants to sit with stinky anymore.
We simply do not export much coal to China even if we export a lot of coal worldwide. And coal exports were strong in 2018.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/product/enduse/exports/c0000.html
EIA traces U.S. consumption of coal over time:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37692
Note how this has declined over the last decade.
But coal exports have been growing rapidly.
Exports have increased from about 8% of
coal production in 2015 to 15% in 2018.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38774
But you are right that China is not a significant destination..
Still, the drop in coal output in recent months is much larger than the long term decline would explain.
Interesting, in the table of coal exports by destination “other”
now accounts for half of total coal exports.
Apparently, China is included in other.
Spencer – granted exports rose from 60 million short tons to 120 million tons but note that domestic consumption used to exceed 1 billion short tons and now is closer to 750 million short tons. Simply put – most of our domestic production goes to domestic consumption so a 25% reduction in domestic consumption swamps even a double of exports.
Census is a nice source for both total exports as well as exports by country. But note it – like BEA – reports dollar volumes not quantities and coal prices vary over time.
coal used for US electric generation appears to be down about 40% over 11 years: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37692
the chart here virtually mirrors yours, Spencer..
Coal and Britain
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/may/25/the-power-switch-tracking-britains-record-coal-free-run