Capacity utilization is telling a very unusual story. Information technology –computers & peripherals, communication equipment and semiconductors — is operating at recession levels. Part of the story is import tablets and smart phones displacing personal computers. But there has to be more to the story. Meanwhile, the rest of industry appears to be operating at […]
Greg Mankiw had an interesting post today pointing out that bond returns calculated by the economist were incorrect. http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/ Mankiw wrote: Here is a question for students who are learning about compounding. What is wrong with the following passage from The Economist magazine? Investors who bought Treasury bonds in 1946, when yields were around current levels, […]
I’m seeing all types of comments on the 2013 rise in part time employment that blame it on Obama-care and that is just plain wrong. Based on unpublished BLS data so far this year federal employes forced to work part time because of the sequester account for over 100% of the increase in part time […]
When the Fed started QE they viewed it as a stimulative, easing of monetary policy. Now they are arguing that tapering or reducing QE is not tightening. Can both of these two positions be correct?
It is time to get serious. There are widespread claims that firms are cutting hours worked and converting full time jobs into part time jobs because of Obama-care. So what does the data say. Below is a table of unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of part time employment by private and […]
Part of the reason employment and hours worked, in particular, have been so weak in early 2013 is the rapid growth of part-time employment. Part time employment is volatile and subject to many influences. From December to June part time employment rose 589,000. That is a 2.2% — almost 5% annualized – growth rate. Part […]
Although the July employment report was weaker than expected, it was still in line with recent experiences. The household survey reported employment gains of 204,000 while the payroll report showed a gain of 162,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 2 cents to $23.98, following a […]
If you listen to CNBC or read right wing blogs you would think that the Obamacare regulations that require large employers — over 50 full time equivalent employees –to provide their employees insurance or pay a penalty is leading to a massive shifting of employees from full time to part time. CNBC is constantly interviewing […]
The last few weeks oil prices have been moving higher and few analysts seem to understand the full story. If there is any commodity that trades at a one world price it is oil. So the recent weakness in West Texas Intermediate ( WTI) is very unusual and stems from temporary bottlenecks. Over the last […]
The quick and dirty rule of thumb is that the relationship between bond yields and the S&P 500 PE is one-to-one. That is, 100 basis point change in bond yields should cause about a 100 basis point change in the PE. Since WWII, the long term trend for earnings growth has been some 7%, or […]