The August employment report shows the economy continuing with its very sluggish pace. Although the unemployment rate fell it was due more to a contracting labor force rather than expanding employment. The household survey showed a drop of some 119,000 while the payroll or headline data increased only 96,000 — private rose 103,000 while government […]

Payroll Employment by Presidential Administrations Ryan is saying that Obama’s record is like Jimmy Carter’s record. When it comes to employment we should hope so. During Carter’s four years in office payroll employment expanded some 10 million,or 12.5%.  or at an average annual rate of 3.1%   This is the second best employment record ofany post […]

PolitiFact, a Tampa based organization  that evaluate the truthfulness of political claims or ads does a very interesting evaluation of an Obama ad about  how much Romney pays in taxes.  The ad says that Romney ‘s tax rate of 14% is probably less than you pay.   http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/aug/09/barack-obama/barack-obama-says-most-americans-pay-higher-tax-ra/ PolitiFact says that if you include payroll taxes […]

The headline number of a 163,000 increase in payroll employment –172,000 private and a -9,000  fall in government –appeared strong.  But it was really just another .weak employment report.  For example over the last twelve months private payroll employment gains have average some 163,000 so this months 172,000 increase was just barely above the 12 […]

Yesterday I compared real private GDP in cycles. Today I would like to look at  real business fixed investment. If you listened to CNBC — otherwise known as the Republican Propaganda Channel — or the campaign claims you would think that all the uncertainty created by Obama was destroying business confidence and that real business […]

Update: Paul Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal points to Spencer England’s post in his column 8/1…Dan I thought it would be interesting to post this chart of real private GDP in recoveries. It clearly shows that since the great moderation we have experienced three recoveries that compared to previous recoveries were very weak.  Whether […]

  The US real trade balance has been bouncing around current level for the last two years –being neither a significant contribution nor a significant drag on  growth.  This is a significantly different picture than the nominal trade balance shows  where the trade deficit is still widening. Much of the apparent stability in the real […]

Both  the payroll and the household. survey showed continued weak employment gains as payroll employment only added some 80,000 jobs and the household survey showed a 128,000 gain. Private payrolls expanded some 84,000 as government jobs only contracted by 4,000. But the workweek did expand from 34.4 to 35.5 hours for all employees and from […]

I regularly see right wingers and republicans claiming that we should allow unlimited oil and gas drilling because it would create so many jobs. If you look at the recent data on growth in employment in oil & gas drilling it appears they may have a good argument.  Over the past year employment in oil […]

by Spencer England A couple of weeks ago President Obama said that the private sector was doing fine. Needless to say this was subject to much criticism from some sources.  But is that criticism justified ? Let’s see what the data says.  This chart of real business output  compares output in the five long cycles […]