The software placed all the charts in the previous post after the page break. I do not know how to fix it so go to page 2 to real the post.

Update:  Charts and data after the read more. With the Fed completing a two day meeting and Bernanke holding a press conference today  it may be a good time to make a few comments about bond yields. In an open economy with a current account deficit the equilibrium interest rate is the one that attracts […]

Mark Thoma had a tweet asking if the stock market is  in a bubble. I do not think so. The market PE  on trailing operating earnings is 15.5 and my model says that based on the historic relationship to interest rates and inflation the market PE should be 21.5%. Obviously, either the market does not […]

If you use the read more in the original employment report post you can see the full report with charts. Spencer

By recent norms this was an unusual employment report in that the data worked the way we would like to see. In the household survey the unemployment rate fell to 7.5% because the labor force rose by 210,000 while employment increased a larger 293,00 so the number of unemployed fell by -83,000.

Last year I had solar panels installed on my roof under a deal where I pay nothing up front for the installation and pay the solar company for the power I produce at a rate about 75% of  what I pay the electric utility. I’m so thankful that I got professional help from this energy […]

I see some evidence that higher domestic energy production and improved competitiveness of US manufacturing is having a positive impact on the US trade balance and US industrial production. But I still expects the impact to be limited. In particular, the real non-petroleum trade balance continues to deteriorate. Increased supplies of cheap natural gas helps […]

The headline numbers in the employment report were very weak as  payroll employment rose by only 88,000  and the household survey reported a -206,000 drop in employment while the labor force fell by -496,000.  The futures markets are reacting very badly.  But the workweek expanded and aggregrate hours worked increased 0.3% as compared to 0.5% […]

This was one of the better employment reports of this cycle.  Private payroll employment grew 246,00while  government employment fell about 10,000 for a net gian of of 236,000.  The household survey also showed a nice gain of 170,000.   On a year over year change basis both series are showing nice gains. You would never […]

This was another tepid employment report not much different than the reports in 2012. Payroll employment rose 168,000 and the household survey showed a gain of only 17,000   Private payrolls expanded 168,000 while government employment fell 9,000.  Perhaps more importantly the year over year change in employment is showing significant signs of weakness,  Both […]