January 2021 jobs report: a strong divergence between very weak job gains, but a big drop in unemployment; but the only critical number is the doses of vaccine administered For the past several weeks, based on the increase in initial jobless claims, I have warned that the December employment report might have a negative number, […]
With all this stalemate posturing in Washington, today Chris Hayes has come up with the best idea I have heard yet to move the players. And, in my opinion actually solve our economic depression. One trillion dollars to be spent on direct hiring by the government along with debt forgiveness. A solution right out […]
The NELP offers a look at the trend for job creation. And there is the caveat that of the productivity gains post recession, over 90% went to those with income over $450,000. http://www.nelp.org/page/-/Job_Creation/LowWageRecovery2012.pdf?nocdn=1
Update: Paul Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal points to Spencer England’s post in his column 8/1…Dan I thought it would be interesting to post this chart of real private GDP in recoveries. It clearly shows that since the great moderation we have experienced three recoveries that compared to previous recoveries were very weak. Whether […]
One of the nice things about the Kauffman Foundation’s Blogger Conference is the time to let the mind wander and look at data after having your brain scoured. One of the worst things is realizing too late that you’ve got a Really Ugly Graphic, and most of the people who could help with it are […]
Just wanted to let everyone know about a presentation that aired on Cspan’s Book TV. It is a 2 hour panel discussion titles: Global Economy: Crisis Without End. It was held 2/17/12. Click hereto bring up the show. What I found most interesting was the different perspectives between Krugman and Sachs. I’m not […]
Tim Duy body-slams St. Louis FRB President James Bullard: Estimates of potential GDP are not simple extrapolations of actual GDP from the peak of the last business cycles. They are estimates of the maximum sustainable output given fully employed resources. The backbone of the CBO’s estimates is a Solow Growth model. So I don’t think […]
by Mike Kimel In this post, I will show that during the New Deal era, changes in the real economic growth rate can be explained almost entirely by the earlier changes in federal government’s non-defense spending. There are going to be a lot of words at first – but if you’re the impatient type, feel […]
by Mike Kimel I was searching for some information and I stumbled on a post Scott Sumner wrote last year about Robert Skidelsky’s biography of John Maynard Keynes. I haven’t read Skidelsky’s book, nor do I know Skidelsky, and its been awful long time since I read Keynes, but this seems an odd complaint: I’m […]
Via Barry Rithholtz, I see that Martin Feldstein has not yet finished with his Atonement. I think I’ve posted a variation of this before, but apparently I’ll have to keep screaming, at least throught Simchat Torah (and, I suspect, beyond). Anyone have Feldstein appearances or editorials from early 2004 talking about how badly the economy […]