Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.
Open thread October 6, 2020
Constitutional Nit Picking
(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts)
by Robert Waldmann
Friday, October 02, 2020
Constitutional Nit Picking
I object to this sentence in this article by Paul Kane in the Washington Post “In such a scenario, deciding the presidency falls to the House of Representatives, but in a rare twist mandated by the 12th Amendment after the contested 1800 election, each state’s delegation counts as one vote. “
In fact, we can blame the delegates at the Constitutional Convention (as well as the 7th Congress) for that particular offense against Democracy. Back in 1800, The Constitution Article II Section 1 included “But in ch00sing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote;” The one state one vote rule does appear in the 12th Amendment, but it was already in the original Constitution. A more important point is that this is only relevant if there is a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The 12th amendment also says ” The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed;” Notice “Electors appointed” not “More than the number of states plus half the number of representatives” or currently more than 269. It is (still in spite of everything) inconceivable that the race is called before it was agreed who won the tipping-point state, but if it is decided that a President-elect must be declared while the winner of some state is contested, the matter will not go to the House voting one state one vote (as always results must be certified by the House voting the normal way one representative one vote).
It has not always been true that all states are represented in the electoral college. It hasn’t always been true in my lifetime (I was born on November 9 1960 the day after electors were elected November 8 1960 but before those electors Kennedy). In 1960 the electors for Hawaii were never assigned because the outcome was contested when the electors voted. This means that Hawaii had to wait until 1964 to be represented in the electoral college after becoming a state on August 21, 1959.
Weekly Indicators for September 28 – October 2 at Seeking Alpha
by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 28 – October 2 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Almost all of the indicators across all time frames are well off their worst levels. The question now is becoming whether or not they will stall out or reverse.
As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and rewards me just a little bit for my efforts.
Open thread Oct. 2, 2020
Meanwhile, climate change is heating up nights faster than days
Climate change is heating up nights faster than days in many parts of the world, findings that could have “profound consequences” for wildlife and their capacity to adapt to the climate emergency, researchers say.
The climate crisis is heating up nights faster than days in many parts of the world, according to the first worldwide assessment of how global heating is differently affecting days and nights.
The findings have “profound consequences” for wildlife and their ability to adapt to the climate emergency, the researchers said, and for the ability of people to cool off at night during dangerous heatwaves.
The scientists compared the rises in daytime and night-time temperatures over the 35 years up to 2017. Global heating is increasing both, but they found that over more than half of the world’s land there was a difference of at least 0.25C between the day and night rises.
Open thread on the “debate”
The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: not a good week for Biden
The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: not a good week for Biden
Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.
Let’s begin with Trump’s approval. Disapproval remains absolutely steady at 52.7% for the third week in a row, while approval improved very slightly (by +0.3%), and remains right in its normal range for the past 3 1/2 years:
There is no indication that either Trump’s “law and order” pitch, or the replacement of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg have moved the needle in any significant way in the past 3 weeks.
Here is this week’s updated map through September 26. To refresh, here is how it works:
– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.
Open thread Sept. 29, 2020
Weekly Indicators for September 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha
– by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
While the underlying economic data still looks positive, the possibility for disruption based on a full-blown Constitutional Crisis following the election can no longer be overlooked.
As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you right up to the moment about the economy, and reward me a little bit for the work I do putting this together.