Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trumpian by Ken Melvin

Let’s take a look at the ‘Greatest’ Trump Economy. The first graph shows the BLS Civilian Unemployment rate from 2000 t0 2020. Use the link for a better look Civilian unemployment rate

If you look really close, no you have to look a little closer yet, you can see the Trump effect.

The second graph is the FRED Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product . By clicking on the link you can shorten the period to 2000-2020. It might help find the Trump Effect (the graph, not an abstract of the graph, too).

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Weekly Indicators for August 31 – September 4 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for August 31 – September 4 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Another long leading indicator, corporate profits, are expected to improve substantially in Q3, meaning that yet another forecasting element for the economy one year from now has stopped being a negative.

Lots of conditions are in place for growth – but only when the coronavirus is brought under control.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you fully up to date, and it also rewards me with a penny or two for putting in the effort each week.

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Two links to ponder

The Revolutionary Post

Winifred Gallagher, author of How the Post Office Created America: A History, argues that the post office is not simply an inexpensive way to send a letter. The service was designed to unite a bunch of disparate towns and people under one flag, and in doing so, she believes the post office actually created the United States of America.

Digital Sight Management, and the Mystery of the Missing Amazon Receipts

 Amazon stopped including item details in order confirmation and shipping notification emails a few months ago. They just show the price and order date now. For all its faults, Amazon has pretty good customer service, which makes this user-hostile change baffling to understand. Sure, you can still see your orders on Amazon’s website and download a CSV, but it’s far more cumbersome than searching your email; …

What reason would be big enough for Amazon to annoy so many of their users? It’s simple: data.

Popular free email clients like Edison Mail and Cleanfox “scrape” their users’ emails and sell anonymised or pseudonymised data on to third parties. With enough users, they can detect trends and measure brand loyalty – valuable information for competitors. By stripping item details from its emails, Amazon tells us just how much this was hurting them.

 

 

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The long leading forecast for H1 2021 at Seeking Alpha

by New Deal democrat

The long leading forecast for H1 2021 at Seeking Alpha

It’s been a long time since I “officially” updated my primary set of long leading indicators, mainly because until it is brought under control the coronavirus pandemic renders other indicators moot.

But that is likely to change by sometime in spring next year, so it makes sense to see what the economy might look like right after that.

This post is posted at Seeking Alpha.

The outcome of the election, and the likely time by which a decent vaccine might become available factor importantly into this outlook.

As I commented in response to some pushback there, my thought process was generally as follows:

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Weekly indicators for August 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha

by New Deal democrat

Weekly indicators for August 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha

 My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The economy as a whole is being driven by lower interest rates, unprecedented Fed supply of new money, stock market gains, and – through July – the Congressional emergency stimulus and unemployment benefits. This is still showing up in all indicator timeframes.

It took a few weeks for the effects of the pandemic lockdowns to show up in late March and April. I am still looking for effects of the end of the Congressional emergency assistance.

As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and rewards me with a couple of pennies for the efforts I put in.

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