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Jobless claims slowly continue to get “less worse,” while longer term deadweight loss builds

Jobless claims slowly continue to get “less worse,” while longer term deadweight loss builds

The good news in this morning’s jobless claims report is that the trend of “less worse” news continues. The bad news is that the improvement has slowed to a snail’s pace, at levels worse than the worst levels of the Great Recession.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 68,038 to 889,549, a new pandemic low. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims declined by 98,000 to 1,006,000, the second-“best” level of the pandemic after 2 weeks ago. The 4 week moving average also declined to a new pandemic low of 1,068,000.:

Continuing claims, on both an un-adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis also continued to decline to new pandemic lows, by 272,941 to 13,909,872, and by 223,000 to 14,535,000 respectively:

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Links to ponder

FDI in a Risky World

by Joseph Joyce

FDI in a Risky World

The pandemic has shown that global supply chains are vulnerable to shocks. Output contracted as factories were closed in China and the impact was transmitted to firms further along the chains and the distributors of the final goods. Foreign direct investment had already slowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and there were questions about its future (see here). How will multinational firms respond to the new shock?

The McKinsey Global Institute seeks to answer this question in a new report, Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing In Global Value Chains. The authors point out that the pandemic is only one of a range of shocks that can disrupt production. They distinguish between catastrophes that are foreseeable (such as financial crises) and those unanticipated (acts of terrorism), as well as disruptions that take place on a smaller scale. The latter can also be divided between those that are foreseeable (climate change) and those that are unanticipated (cyberattacks).

The report then measures the exposure of different business sectors to the various shocks. Those that are heavily traded are more vulnerable. These include communication equipment, computers and electronics, and semiconductors and components, all industries that are seen as promoting growth. Apparel is another sector that is vulnerable to risks, such as the pandemic and climate change.

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Topical thread

Lifted from comments, reader likbez alerts us to this issue:

 

In the meantime happening live in the USA but hardly on this blog…

https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/why-us-lose-power-storms/

US has more power outages than any other !!! developed country. Our grid is outdated and rundown, but utilities aren’t willing to do much about it… oops (Generator-Industries bribes, lol ??!!)

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Weekly Indicators for August 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha

  by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for August 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was continued improvement across the time spectrum this week.

The underlying story remains the same: the economy “wants” to improve, but that is subject to the course of the pandemic and the continuing political decisions that are being made at both the federal and State levels, in particular the cessation of the $600 enhanced weekly unemployment benefit.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me a little bit for the efforts I make.

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Coronavirus dashboard for August 10: some good news to balance the bad

Coronavirus dashboard for August 10: some good news to balance the bad

Total US cases:  5,060,880

Average last 7 days: 52,393/day
Total US deaths: 154,947
Average last 7 days: 1,045/day

Source: COVID Tracking Project

Let’s take a look at some good news as well as continued bad news today.

First, the bad news. Here are the top 10 States for coronavirus infections:

 

And here are the top 10 States for deaths:

 

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