Climate change is the global economy’s biggest long-term challenge but one the world is least prepared to tackle because of short-term problems led by a cost-of-living crisis, the World Economic Forum said in a report Wednesday.
The group’s Global Risks Report, released ahead of its annual gathering of government leaders and business elites next week in the Swiss Alpine resort of Davos, offers a bleak outlook.
The report based on a survey of 1,200 risk experts, industry bosses and policymakers says the biggest challenges over the next decade involve the environment, yet more immediate challenges are distracting world leaders, some of whom will be in Davos for panel discussions and schmoozing at an event that has faced criticism for not producing concrete action.
“The coming years will present tough trade-offs for governments facing competing concerns for society, the environment and security,” according to the report co-authored with global insurance broker Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group.
“A failure to mitigate climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats in the short term but is the global risk we are seen to be the least prepared for,” the report said.
Out of the top 10 long-term challenges, respondents said the top four are climate related: failure to limit or adapt to climate change; natural disasters and extreme weather; biodiversity loss; and ecosystem collapse.
Short-term risks are testing pledges to reach net zero emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and “have exposed a gap between what is scientifically necessary and politically palatable,” the report said.
“We need to be better at balancing the short-term outlook of risk with the long-term outlook of risk,” said Carolina Klint, risk management leader at Marsh, “and we need to make decisions now that might feel counterintuitive because they might be a little bit costly upfront, but it’s just unavoidable.”
One example is the big investment needed to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, Klint said.
Top of the list of challenges over the next two years is a cost-of-living crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has sent food and energy prices soaring, squeezing household finances worldwide.
Other aftershocks set off by the pandemic and the war have signaled a new and gloomier era for the global economy.
Governments and central banks face the dilemma of reining in inflation by hiking interest rates, which runs the risk of sparking recession, or spending money to shield people from its worst effects, which could add to already-high public debt levels.
The report also said deglobalization is increasingly in vogue. The war in Ukraine highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and natural gas while microchip shortages sparked by pandemic restrictions spotlighted the prevalence of semiconductor manufacturing in Asia.
“Economic warfare is becoming the norm,” the report said. Tensions will rise as global powers use economic policies defensively to reduce reliance on rivals and offensively to limit the rise of competing nations.
On top of that, society is increasingly polarized. Economic and social divisions are turning into political ones with people far apart on immigration, gender, reproductive rights, religion, climate and more — contributing to the decline of democracies.
A big factor is misinformation and disinformation from political influencers spreading extreme beliefs and swaying elections with social media “echo chambers,” the report said.
Another growing risk is cybercrime and cyber insecurity stemming from increasingly connected public services such as transport, financial and water systems, which leaves them vulnerable to online disruptions and attacks.
The race to develop new technologies in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotechnology will offer partial solutions to some crises, the report said, but it also could widen inequality because poorer countries can’t afford them.
“The resulting new economic era may be one of growing divergence between rich and poor countries,” the report said, “and the first rollback in human development in decades.”
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
Walt Kelly’s funny animal comic strip Pogo provided a surprising, but effective, setting for his incisive political satire.
During the War of 1812, the United States Navy defeated the British Navy in the Battle of Lake Erie. Master Commandant Oliver Perry wrote to Major General William Henry Harrison, “We have met the enemy and they are ours.” Kelly’s parody of this famous battle report perfectly summarizes mankind’s tendency to create our own problems. In this case, we have only ourselves to blame for the pollution and destruction of our environment.
Kelly coined the phrase for an anti-pollution Earth Day poster in 1970 and used it again in a special comic strip created for Earth Day 1971. The saying caught the collective imagination of the public and is still used today.
President Biden announced on Wednesday that he would send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian invaders, a decision meant to unlock a wave of heavier aid by Western allies in preparation for an expected escalation of fighting in the spring.
Speaking at the White House after a morning of telephone calls to European allies, Mr. Biden said that the United States would send 31 Abrams tanks, the equivalent of a Ukrainian battalion, and that Germany would follow through by contributing its own Leopard 2 tanks and freeing other allies to send their own, the equivalent of two more battalions.
“These tanks are further evidence of our enduring, unflagging commitment to Ukraine and our confidence in the skill of Ukrainian forces,” Mr. Biden said, flanked by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III.
But he emphasized that the buildup was not meant to expand the war into Russia. “It is not an offensive threat to Russia,” he said. “There is no offensive threat to Russia. If Russian troops return to Russia, where they belong, this war would be over today.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has pressed for the tanks to counter Russia’s advantage in arms and men, expressed gratitude for the U.S. decision. Writing on Twitter, he called it “an important step on the path to victory,” and said, “Today the free world is united as never before for a common goal — liberation of Ukraine,” with an icon of the country’s flag representing its name. “We’re moving forward.” …
It seems that Germany was unwilling to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and refused to allow other Nato countries to send their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukriane, until the US agreed to send Abrams tanks. The US tanks are very sophisticated, difficult to maintain, and may not arrive for a year, so that should placate Putin.
Last night MSN said that Germany was sending about 14 tanks, but other Nato allies are sending more. Supposedly the 31 US tanks pledged are already in Europe, but are ‘sophisticated’, with gas turbine engines, etc. – will require much training (which may already be under way in the US?)
The Leopard 2 tanks will presumably be of more use in Ukraine.
Economic growth remained solid at the end of last year as the strong job market and cooling inflation allowed Americans to keep spending despite fears of a recession.
U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was down slightly from a 3.2 percent growth rate in the third quarter. Consumer spending, the bedrock of the U.S. economy, grew at a 2.1 percent rate. The data is preliminary and will be revised at least twice in coming months. …
The healthy fourth-quarter growth capped a year in which economic output contracted in the first half, prompting talk of a recession, then rebounded. Over the year as a whole, as measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier, G.D.P. grew 1 percent, down sharply from 5.7 percent growth in 2021.
The seesaw pattern in 2022 was driven by big swings in trade and inventories, historically the most volatile components of G.D.P. The bigger picture, economists said, was simpler: The recovery from the pandemic recession has cooled from the frenetic pace of 2021, but has remained resilient in the face of war in Europe, inflation around the world and an aggressive series of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve at home. …
The question now is whether that resilience can continue in 2023. Inflation remains too high by many measures, and the Fed is expected to continue increasing rates in an effort to bring prices under control. A congressional showdown over raising the debt ceiling could cause further turmoil in financial markets — or a crisis if lawmakers fail to reach a deal. Many forecasters still say a recession is likely, perhaps later this year.
Already, there are signs of strain, especially in the sectors most sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Construction activity and home sales have slowed significantly. Tech companies have announced tens of thousands of layoffs in recent weeks. Manufacturing output fell in November and December.
Even the reliable consumer-spending engine may be starting to sputter: Retail sales have fallen for two straight months, and Americans are increasingly turning to credit cards as pandemic-era savings dry up. …
But economists say a recession this year is not inevitable. Inflation has begun to ease in recent months, even as the unemployment rate has remained low. That could allow the Fed to raise rates more slowly, reducing the risk that it will go too far in cooling off the economy.
“We’ve seen good news on inflation even with the labor market staying strong,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. “Now monetary policy can be a little more patient.”
A fascinating article (?) in the NY Times on the Earth’s nickel-iron core and how it spins, or doesn’t spin, how that changes. Way down, we live on a most peculiar planet.
Researchers proposed a model with a 70-year rotation cycle of our planet’s iron heart, and report that we’re in the middle of one of its big shifts.
Imagine Earth’s inner core … on the cusp of a big shift. Seismologists reported Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience that after brief but peculiar pauses, the inner core changes how it spins — relative to the motion of Earth’s surface — perhaps once every few decades. And, right now, one such reversal may be underway.
This may sound like a setup for a world-wrecking, blockbuster movie. But fret not: Precisely nothing apocalyptic will result from this planetary spin cycle, which may have been happening for eons. The researchers who propose this speculative model instead aim to advance understanding of Earth’s innermost sanctum and its relationship with the rest of the world.
The inner core is like “a planet within a planet, so how it moves is obviously very important,” said Xiaodong Song, a seismologist at Peking University in Beijing and an author of the study. …
Tonight’s 60 Minutes features Kristalina Ivanova Georgieva-Kinova, the Bulgarian economist that has been managing director of the International Monetary Fund since 2019, and former Manhattan special assistant DA Mark Pomerantz speaking in his first television interview after he abruptly resigned a year ago. Pomerantz says DA Alvin Bragg halted the grand jury probe of former President Donald Trump on the case that he had developed leading him to resign.
Cost-of-living crisis overshadows climate, Davos report says
AP – January 11 (supposedly updated Jan 24)
Climate change is the global economy’s biggest long-term challenge but one the world is least prepared to tackle because of short-term problems led by a cost-of-living crisis, the World Economic Forum said in a report Wednesday.
The group’s Global Risks Report, released ahead of its annual gathering of government leaders and business elites next week in the Swiss Alpine resort of Davos, offers a bleak outlook.
The report based on a survey of 1,200 risk experts, industry bosses and policymakers says the biggest challenges over the next decade involve the environment, yet more immediate challenges are distracting world leaders, some of whom will be in Davos for panel discussions and schmoozing at an event that has faced criticism for not producing concrete action.
“The coming years will present tough trade-offs for governments facing competing concerns for society, the environment and security,” according to the report co-authored with global insurance broker Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group.
“A failure to mitigate climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats in the short term but is the global risk we are seen to be the least prepared for,” the report said.
Out of the top 10 long-term challenges, respondents said the top four are climate related: failure to limit or adapt to climate change; natural disasters and extreme weather; biodiversity loss; and ecosystem collapse.
Short-term risks are testing pledges to reach net zero emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and “have exposed a gap between what is scientifically necessary and politically palatable,” the report said.
“We need to be better at balancing the short-term outlook of risk with the long-term outlook of risk,” said Carolina Klint, risk management leader at Marsh, “and we need to make decisions now that might feel counterintuitive because they might be a little bit costly upfront, but it’s just unavoidable.”
One example is the big investment needed to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, Klint said.
Top of the list of challenges over the next two years is a cost-of-living crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has sent food and energy prices soaring, squeezing household finances worldwide.
Other aftershocks set off by the pandemic and the war have signaled a new and gloomier era for the global economy.
Governments and central banks face the dilemma of reining in inflation by hiking interest rates, which runs the risk of sparking recession, or spending money to shield people from its worst effects, which could add to already-high public debt levels.
The report also said deglobalization is increasingly in vogue. The war in Ukraine highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and natural gas while microchip shortages sparked by pandemic restrictions spotlighted the prevalence of semiconductor manufacturing in Asia.
“Economic warfare is becoming the norm,” the report said. Tensions will rise as global powers use economic policies defensively to reduce reliance on rivals and offensively to limit the rise of competing nations.
On top of that, society is increasingly polarized. Economic and social divisions are turning into political ones with people far apart on immigration, gender, reproductive rights, religion, climate and more — contributing to the decline of democracies.
A big factor is misinformation and disinformation from political influencers spreading extreme beliefs and swaying elections with social media “echo chambers,” the report said.
Global Risks Report – 2023
Another growing risk is cybercrime and cyber insecurity stemming from increasingly connected public services such as transport, financial and water systems, which leaves them vulnerable to online disruptions and attacks.
The race to develop new technologies in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotechnology will offer partial solutions to some crises, the report said, but it also could widen inequality because poorer countries can’t afford them.
“The resulting new economic era may be one of growing divergence between rich and poor countries,” the report said, “and the first rollback in human development in decades.”
[Three classic comic strip panels at link below.]
https://library.osu.edu/site/40stories/2020/01/05/we-have-met-the-enemy/
36. “We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us”
Walt Kelly’s funny animal comic strip Pogo provided a surprising, but effective, setting for his incisive political satire.
During the War of 1812, the United States Navy defeated the British Navy in the Battle of Lake Erie. Master Commandant Oliver Perry wrote to Major General William Henry Harrison, “We have met the enemy and they are ours.” Kelly’s parody of this famous battle report perfectly summarizes mankind’s tendency to create our own problems. In this case, we have only ourselves to blame for the pollution and destruction of our environment.
Kelly coined the phrase for an anti-pollution Earth Day poster in 1970 and used it again in a special comic strip created for Earth Day 1971. The saying caught the collective imagination of the public and is still used today.
Biden announces 31 Abrams tanks for Ukraine, but says the move is not meant to escalate the war.
NY Times – Jan 25
President Biden announced on Wednesday that he would send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian invaders, a decision meant to unlock a wave of heavier aid by Western allies in preparation for an expected escalation of fighting in the spring.
Speaking at the White House after a morning of telephone calls to European allies, Mr. Biden said that the United States would send 31 Abrams tanks, the equivalent of a Ukrainian battalion, and that Germany would follow through by contributing its own Leopard 2 tanks and freeing other allies to send their own, the equivalent of two more battalions.
“These tanks are further evidence of our enduring, unflagging commitment to Ukraine and our confidence in the skill of Ukrainian forces,” Mr. Biden said, flanked by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III.
But he emphasized that the buildup was not meant to expand the war into Russia. “It is not an offensive threat to Russia,” he said. “There is no offensive threat to Russia. If Russian troops return to Russia, where they belong, this war would be over today.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has pressed for the tanks to counter Russia’s advantage in arms and men, expressed gratitude for the U.S. decision. Writing on Twitter, he called it “an important step on the path to victory,” and said, “Today the free world is united as never before for a common goal — liberation of Ukraine,” with an icon of the country’s flag representing its name. “We’re moving forward.” …
It seems that Germany was unwilling to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and refused to allow other Nato countries to send their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukriane, until the US agreed to send Abrams tanks. The US tanks are very sophisticated, difficult to maintain, and may not arrive for a year, so that should placate Putin.
@Fred,
Looks like Germany is willing.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/europe/germany-leopard-2-tanks-ukraine-announcement-intl/index.html
Last night MSN said that Germany was sending about 14 tanks, but other Nato allies are sending more. Supposedly the 31 US tanks pledged are already in Europe, but are ‘sophisticated’, with gas turbine engines, etc. – will require much training (which may already be under way in the US?)
The Leopard 2 tanks will presumably be of more use in Ukraine.
The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter
NY Times – just in
Economic growth remained solid at the end of last year as the strong job market and cooling inflation allowed Americans to keep spending despite fears of a recession.
U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was down slightly from a 3.2 percent growth rate in the third quarter. Consumer spending, the bedrock of the U.S. economy, grew at a 2.1 percent rate. The data is preliminary and will be revised at least twice in coming months. …
The healthy fourth-quarter growth capped a year in which economic output contracted in the first half, prompting talk of a recession, then rebounded. Over the year as a whole, as measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier, G.D.P. grew 1 percent, down sharply from 5.7 percent growth in 2021.
The seesaw pattern in 2022 was driven by big swings in trade and inventories, historically the most volatile components of G.D.P. The bigger picture, economists said, was simpler: The recovery from the pandemic recession has cooled from the frenetic pace of 2021, but has remained resilient in the face of war in Europe, inflation around the world and an aggressive series of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve at home. …
The question now is whether that resilience can continue in 2023. Inflation remains too high by many measures, and the Fed is expected to continue increasing rates in an effort to bring prices under control. A congressional showdown over raising the debt ceiling could cause further turmoil in financial markets — or a crisis if lawmakers fail to reach a deal. Many forecasters still say a recession is likely, perhaps later this year.
Already, there are signs of strain, especially in the sectors most sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Construction activity and home sales have slowed significantly. Tech companies have announced tens of thousands of layoffs in recent weeks. Manufacturing output fell in November and December.
Even the reliable consumer-spending engine may be starting to sputter: Retail sales have fallen for two straight months, and Americans are increasingly turning to credit cards as pandemic-era savings dry up. …
But economists say a recession this year is not inevitable. Inflation has begun to ease in recent months, even as the unemployment rate has remained low. That could allow the Fed to raise rates more slowly, reducing the risk that it will go too far in cooling off the economy.
“We’ve seen good news on inflation even with the labor market staying strong,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. “Now monetary policy can be a little more patient.”
A fascinating article (?) in the NY Times on the Earth’s nickel-iron core and how it spins, or doesn’t spin, how that changes. Way down, we live on a most peculiar planet.
Earth’s Inner Core: A Shifting, Spinning Mystery’s Latest Twist
Researchers proposed a model with a 70-year rotation cycle of our planet’s iron heart, and report that we’re in the middle of one of its big shifts.
Imagine Earth’s inner core … on the cusp of a big shift. Seismologists reported Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience that after brief but peculiar pauses, the inner core changes how it spins — relative to the motion of Earth’s surface — perhaps once every few decades. And, right now, one such reversal may be underway.
This may sound like a setup for a world-wrecking, blockbuster movie. But fret not: Precisely nothing apocalyptic will result from this planetary spin cycle, which may have been happening for eons. The researchers who propose this speculative model instead aim to advance understanding of Earth’s innermost sanctum and its relationship with the rest of the world.
The inner core is like “a planet within a planet, so how it moves is obviously very important,” said Xiaodong Song, a seismologist at Peking University in Beijing and an author of the study. …
Has Earth’s inner core stopped its strange spin?
Nature – January 23
Tonight’s 60 Minutes features Kristalina Ivanova Georgieva-Kinova, the Bulgarian economist that has been managing director of the International Monetary Fund since 2019, and former Manhattan special assistant DA Mark Pomerantz speaking in his first television interview after he abruptly resigned a year ago. Pomerantz says DA Alvin Bragg halted the grand jury probe of former President Donald Trump on the case that he had developed leading him to resign.