My understanding is that in my lifetime the US has benefited from a capitalist economy in which profit motive balanced by competition and regulation has made us more productive, Average wages have risen and poverty has decreased. Since Reagan competition and regulation have been undermined. Is that because people are too stupid to see how important those checks are?
An article at CNN on egg prices, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/business/egg-prices/index.html, could use some more consideration of mechanisms when competition is lacking. Bird flu hit the supply of eggs. The demand is rather inelastic, so as the price rose, profits rose. Did suppliers hurt themselves? Substitution effects take time. Now supply is back, but demand is not matching it and prices are plummeting.
If suppliers were smarter, would they not have kept prices somewhat lower so that customers did not turn away?
i am not sosure we have benefitted from the miracle of capitalism…as it seems to be destroying the planet (whether or not you count global warming), but it seems to be, have been, inevitable. not so much anymore as “we” know more than we did then.
video talk about tools of fascism i suggested in a comment on a thread long ago and far away might suggest what we are up against….we already know, but sometimes it helps to get it stated clearly, otherwise we just mill around like buffalo in a “stand.”
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
OTOH, fascism is not a rejection of capitalism, but more a coming out of the closet of the ownership class. Authoritarians replace the political representation of pandered electoral demographic divisions. When the dictatorial class is backed by the capitalists, then fascism reigns supreme, but when the dictatorial class is backed by the proletariat, then state totalitarianism is in charge (IOW, authoritarians get to cut out the middle man).
In any case, anything approaching actual democracy is hard work and much more than a matter of allowing ourselves to be triangulated into voting blocks by elites with their own (often not so well hidden) agendas. We have never had one, but then neither has any other advanced economy. So far, in human history the only honest examples have been from a few small tribal communities, but not a very large share of them either. Strong man politics emerged from tribal communities with superior appeal wherever any form of armed conflict might be expected to eventually occur. The violent nature of primates makes peaceful civilization, much less general prosperity and happiness, into a heavy lift.
In our time, the US, New Zealand, some Scandinavians, and a few others have stood on the threshold of a more humane, more human, and more democratic representative government, but we all still have a ways to go before crossing over and the headwinds are stirring up strong in this 21st century.
President Biden and congressional leaders in both parties emerged from a White House meeting on Tuesday offering glimmers of hope about eventually reaching a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, even as they conceded they were still far from averting a default that could come as soon as June 1. …
House Democrats pushed forward on Wednesday with a procedural move that could force a vote to increase the debt limit should negotiations between President Biden and Republicans collapse, moving despite signs of progress in the bipartisan talks to advance a long-shot Plan B to avert a default.
Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma and a leading legislative tactician as chairman of the Rules Committee, said Tuesday that he doubted Republicans would cross over and sign on.
“I don’t think we are in any trouble,” Mr. Cole said in an interview. “I don’t think anybody wants to be one of about a half a dozen that hands victory over to Biden.” …
In his letter, Mr. Jeffries noted that former President Donald J. Trump had encouraged Republicans to allow the nation to default if Republicans cannot extract deep spending cuts from Democrats, a position that could encourage Republicans to hold out in the talks.
“In the next few weeks, at the reckless urging of former President Trump,” he wrote, “we confront the possibility that right-wing extremists will intentionally plunge our country into a default crisis.”
President Biden, just moments before he departed on Wednesday for a diplomatic trip to Asia, said he was confident “America will not default” as congressional leaders in both parties offered some signs of optimism about eventually reaching a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit.
“Every leader in the room understands the consequences if we failed to pay our bills,” Mr. Biden said at the White House on Wednesday before leaving for Hiroshima, Japan, to attend the Group of 7 meeting there. “And it would be catastrophic for the American economy and the American people.”
Mr. Biden described his face-to-face meeting with congressional negotiators the day before as productive, “civil and respectful” and said both Democrats and Republicans agreed that the United States cannot default.
But his decision to get a final word in on the negotiations signaled that even as he departs for a summit on the global economy, the White House is focused on averting an economic crisis back home. …
Mr. Biden echoed the optimism offered by both Democratic and Republican leaders after Tuesday’s meeting.
He has designated his senior adviser, Steve Ricchetti, and Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, to speak to a team of negotiators representing congressional Republicans. Speaker Kevin McCarthy had also commended the move as a sign of progress on Tuesday.
“We narrowed the group to meet and hammer out our differences,” Mr. Biden said, adding that the negotiating teams met on Tuesday night and will meet again on Wednesday.
Time is running out for the two sides to reach a consensus. …
Biden ‘confident’ there will be no US debt default
AP – May 17
President Biden said Wednesday that he is confident the US will avoid an unprecedented and catastrophic debt default, saying talks with congressional Republicans have been productive as he prepared to leave for a global summit in Japan.
“I’m confident that we’ll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room of the White House. He said he and lawmakers will come together “because there’s no alternative.”
Biden’s remarks came just before he departed Washington for the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, and one day after he convened a second Oval Office meeting with congressional leaders to determine how to avert debt default. ,,,
Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s demand that any deal to raise the debt limit must include stricter work requirements for social safety net programs — and President Biden’s hints that he might be willing to accept such a bargain — has drawn a backlash from liberal Democrats in Congress, underscoring the tricky politics at play in bipartisan talks to avert a default.
The proposal has become a central issue in negotiations between Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy, which entered a new phase this week as the two offered glimmers of hope that they could reach a deal to increase the borrowing limit, now projected to be reached as early as June 1, and avoid an economic catastrophe.
House Republicans’ debt limit bill, approved last month along party lines, would impose stricter work requirements for beneficiaries of food stamps, Medicaid and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and the speaker said this week that Republicans would insist on such a provision as part of any deal. Mr. Biden has pointedly left the door open to the idea, noting that he voted for work requirements as a senator. …
Democrats who could still challenge Biden for the presidential nomination
Boston Globe – May 18
Three weeks ago, President Biden announced he will seek reelection as president. As an incumbent, no other Democrat could come close to raising the campaign money he has or competing with his name recognition.
Still, Biden remains one of the weakest incumbent presidents to seek reelection in decades.
It’s not just that his approval rating dipped to 36 percent after he announced. Or that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, didn’t want him to run. …
(If the US defaults on the Debt, Biden’s re-nomination chances will plummet, IMO.)
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden To Run Again, Poll Finds—But They’ll Probably Vote For Him Anyway
Forbes – April 21
The poll, conducted April 13-17 among 1,230 U.S. adults, found only 26% of respondents would like to see Biden run again in 2024, versus 73% who said he shouldn’t.
That includes 47% of Democrats, while 52% of Democrats do not want him to run.
Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 bid was similarly unpopular, with 30% of respondents saying they don’t want him to run again, though 55% of Republicans say they want him to run again.
The vast majority of Democrats—81%—say they’re likely to support Biden in a general election if he does run, however, with 41% saying they would “definitely” vote for him and 40% saying they “probably” would.
The poll also found 43% of respondents would probably or definitely vote for Biden, while only 35% said the same of Trump. …
Global temperatures are likely to soar to record highs over the next five years, driven by human-caused warming and a climate pattern known as El Niño, forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
The record for Earth’s hottest year was set in 2016. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed that, the forecasters said, while the average from 2023 to ’27 will almost certainly be the warmest for a five-year period ever recorded. …
The organization reported that there is also a two thirds chance that one of the next five years could be 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than the 19th-century average.
That does not mean that the world will have officially breached the aspirational goal in the Paris climate agreement of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. When scientists talk about that temperature goal, they generally mean a longer-term average over, say, two decades in order to root out the influence of natural variability. …
Poor semantics is no excuse, but Fred’s “root” was to expose statistical variability to the light of day, not change reality, but just perform a meaningful accounting of it.
I understod that, but I was struck by “sounds like..” which is what it amounts to. btw i think there is some chance that “statistical variability” would be taken to understand something like “experimental error” [something like] when natural variability is the critical essense of the subject. i get so tired of “average” being used to mean “the important part.” it’s kind of like taking “the majority” as the eleventh commandment.
Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas. ,,,
(One might wonder how evolution is working over on Venus.)
this was my point about “rooting out statistical variability. same idea with the 66% and 98% likelihoods in yours above. I wonder data set these statistical measures are based on and why they feel confident in reporting them to two significant digits.
pardon me about this, my pedantry does nothing to further the conversation..or what to do about it. or maybe only enouh to point out that “statistics” is a way of avoiding understanding, first, that the “uncertainty” doesn’t matter when you are about to be run over by a herd of buffalo at an average speed of 30.623 miles per hour. or (second) that when you are measuring something that MUST be accurate to 0.01 foot, it is unwise to take the average of six different measurements without understanding where the “error” is coming from “exactly.”
writing too fast: i shoud have said sample set instead of data set. and i should have at least mentioned the size of the variation in those “six measuremtents.” i said variation here instead of “standard deviation” because the latter is another one of those over-precise words that make people think they know something when they don’t
there are of course people who know far more about statistical reasoning than i do. the people i encounter on blogs and in my former profession are not among them.
… inflation, which had been quiescent for decades, surged in 2021-22 to levels not seen since the 1980s. It has come down from its peak, but it’s still higher than we’ve come to expect. And trying to get inflation back down has become a priority for policymakers.
The question is, how hard will disinflation be? Will it create anything like the pain many Americans endured in the early 1980s because of the Fed’s brutal decisions on interest rates? Or as people often put it, can we achieve a “soft landing”? …
The economy looks OK — if you ignore that ticking time bomb in D.C.
Boston Globe – May 15
A ‘soft landing’ is still possible, but not if the US stops paying its bills
It’s been one blow after another: a pandemic, a sharp but brief shutdown recession, the worst inflation in four decades, war in Ukraine, a bear market, and a trio of bank blowups.
Through it all the economy has proven surprisingly resilient, expanding by an inflation-adjusted 5.3 percent from just before COVID hit to the first quarter of this year. Unemployment is at a 55-year low.
Perhaps more surprising is that the Federal Reserve still has an outside chance of navigating a “soft landing” — the exceedingly difficult challenge of slowing the economy just enough to cool inflation without inducing steep job losses.
We can kiss a soft landing goodbye, of course, if Congress and President Biden don’t work out a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash.
If the government defaults on its financial obligations, and the self-inflicted crisis isn’t resolved quickly, the fallout would almost certainly crush financial markets and cause a deep recession.
well, i don’t know. but from what i have seen in public reasoning on the subject, neither do they. and i get the feeling that “soft landing” is not what they care about. as long as they keep the bankers happy the rich can ride out a recession. and the poor can live on the street.
Republicans left negotiations on Friday, saying the White House was refusing to move its way on spending cuts.
Negotiations between top White House and Republican congressional officials over a deal to raise the debt limit hit a snag on Friday when a G.O.P. leader in the talks said it was time to “press pause,” complaining that President Biden’s team was being unreasonable and that no progress could be made.
It was a setback in the effort to avert a debt default before a June 1 deadline, though it was not clear whether the delay was a tactical retreat or a lasting blow to chances of getting an agreement.
The halt came one day after the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus declared that Republicans should cease negotiations with Mr. Biden and insist on their debt limit legislation, which demanded steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the federal borrowing cap and is a dead letter in the Democratic-controlled Senate. …
… The abrupt turnabout reflected the unwieldy state of negotiations over a bipartisan deal to avert a debt default that could occur as soon as June 1.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Friday evening on Fox Business that Republicans would return to the negotiating table and that bipartisan talks at the Capitol would continue into the night.
“We’ll be back in the room tonight,” Mr. McCarthy said. “But it’s very frustrating if they want to come into the room and think we’re going to spend more money next year than we did this year. That’s not right, and that’s not going to happen.” …
Republicans hinted on Friday that a major source of their frustration was how strictly to cap federal spending. The bill that House Republicans passed last month would raise the nation’s borrowing limit into next year in exchange for freezing spending at last year’s levels for a decade — which would lead to cuts of an average of 18 percent.
The bill is a dead letter in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus declared on Thursday that Republicans should insist that it pass as is.
“No more discussion on watering it down,” the group said in a tweet. “Period.” …
… Negotiators were at odds over a handful of issues, including the extent to which a possible deal would include tougher work requirements for social safety net programs — a proposal that has drawn a backlash from progressive Democrats — and the length of any debt limit extension.
Conservatives in the House G.O.P. conference had grown increasingly concerned in recent days that Mr. McCarthy would agree to a deal freezing spending at current levels, rather than at last year’s levels, and would not lock in the kind of spending cuts for which they have long agitated. …
My understanding is that in my lifetime the US has benefited from a capitalist economy in which profit motive balanced by competition and regulation has made us more productive, Average wages have risen and poverty has decreased. Since Reagan competition and regulation have been undermined. Is that because people are too stupid to see how important those checks are?
An article at CNN on egg prices, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/business/egg-prices/index.html, could use some more consideration of mechanisms when competition is lacking. Bird flu hit the supply of eggs. The demand is rather inelastic, so as the price rose, profits rose. Did suppliers hurt themselves? Substitution effects take time. Now supply is back, but demand is not matching it and prices are plummeting.
If suppliers were smarter, would they not have kept prices somewhat lower so that customers did not turn away?
arne
maybe. but “greed is good” don’t you know.
i am not sosure we have benefitted from the miracle of capitalism…as it seems to be destroying the planet (whether or not you count global warming), but it seems to be, have been, inevitable. not so much anymore as “we” know more than we did then.
video talk about tools of fascism i suggested in a comment on a thread long ago and far away might suggest what we are up against….we already know, but sometimes it helps to get it stated clearly, otherwise we just mill around like buffalo in a “stand.”
Coberly,
Yep.
OTOH, fascism is not a rejection of capitalism, but more a coming out of the closet of the ownership class. Authoritarians replace the political representation of pandered electoral demographic divisions. When the dictatorial class is backed by the capitalists, then fascism reigns supreme, but when the dictatorial class is backed by the proletariat, then state totalitarianism is in charge (IOW, authoritarians get to cut out the middle man).
In any case, anything approaching actual democracy is hard work and much more than a matter of allowing ourselves to be triangulated into voting blocks by elites with their own (often not so well hidden) agendas. We have never had one, but then neither has any other advanced economy. So far, in human history the only honest examples have been from a few small tribal communities, but not a very large share of them either. Strong man politics emerged from tribal communities with superior appeal wherever any form of armed conflict might be expected to eventually occur. The violent nature of primates makes peaceful civilization, much less general prosperity and happiness, into a heavy lift.
In our time, the US, New Zealand, some Scandinavians, and a few others have stood on the threshold of a more humane, more human, and more democratic representative government, but we all still have a ways to go before crossing over and the headwinds are stirring up strong in this 21st century.
Fair winds and trailing seas to you and yours.
Déjà vu all over again?
Biden and McCarthy Show Signs of Optimism, but Remain Far Apart on Debt Deal
NY Times – just 1n
President Biden and congressional leaders in both parties emerged from a White House meeting on Tuesday offering glimmers of hope about eventually reaching a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, even as they conceded they were still far from averting a default that could come as soon as June 1. …
House Democrats Move Forward With Petition to Force Debt Limit Vote
NY Times – May 17
House Democrats pushed forward on Wednesday with a procedural move that could force a vote to increase the debt limit should negotiations between President Biden and Republicans collapse, moving despite signs of progress in the bipartisan talks to advance a long-shot Plan B to avert a default.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, wrote to his colleagues urging them to quickly sign a discharge petition, which can automatically force a House vote on legislation if a majority of 218 members sign it. …
Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma and a leading legislative tactician as chairman of the Rules Committee, said Tuesday that he doubted Republicans would cross over and sign on.
“I don’t think we are in any trouble,” Mr. Cole said in an interview. “I don’t think anybody wants to be one of about a half a dozen that hands victory over to Biden.” …
In his letter, Mr. Jeffries noted that former President Donald J. Trump had encouraged Republicans to allow the nation to default if Republicans cannot extract deep spending cuts from Democrats, a position that could encourage Republicans to hold out in the talks.
“In the next few weeks, at the reckless urging of former President Trump,” he wrote, “we confront the possibility that right-wing extremists will intentionally plunge our country into a default crisis.”
Biden Says He Is Confident America Will Not Default on Its Debts
NY Times – May 17
Speaking just moments before he left for a diplomatic trip overseas, President Biden said a default would be “catastrophic.”
President Biden, just moments before he departed on Wednesday for a diplomatic trip to Asia, said he was confident “America will not default” as congressional leaders in both parties offered some signs of optimism about eventually reaching a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit.
“Every leader in the room understands the consequences if we failed to pay our bills,” Mr. Biden said at the White House on Wednesday before leaving for Hiroshima, Japan, to attend the Group of 7 meeting there. “And it would be catastrophic for the American economy and the American people.”
Mr. Biden described his face-to-face meeting with congressional negotiators the day before as productive, “civil and respectful” and said both Democrats and Republicans agreed that the United States cannot default.
But his decision to get a final word in on the negotiations signaled that even as he departs for a summit on the global economy, the White House is focused on averting an economic crisis back home. …
Mr. Biden echoed the optimism offered by both Democratic and Republican leaders after Tuesday’s meeting.
He has designated his senior adviser, Steve Ricchetti, and Shalanda Young, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, to speak to a team of negotiators representing congressional Republicans. Speaker Kevin McCarthy had also commended the move as a sign of progress on Tuesday.
“We narrowed the group to meet and hammer out our differences,” Mr. Biden said, adding that the negotiating teams met on Tuesday night and will meet again on Wednesday.
Time is running out for the two sides to reach a consensus. …
Biden ‘confident’ there will be no US debt default
AP – May 17
President Biden said Wednesday that he is confident the US will avoid an unprecedented and catastrophic debt default, saying talks with congressional Republicans have been productive as he prepared to leave for a global summit in Japan.
“I’m confident that we’ll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room of the White House. He said he and lawmakers will come together “because there’s no alternative.”
Biden’s remarks came just before he departed Washington for the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, and one day after he convened a second Oval Office meeting with congressional leaders to determine how to avert debt default. ,,,
Biden’s hints that he might be willing to accept stricter work requirements
NY Times – May 18
Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s demand that any deal to raise the debt limit must include stricter work requirements for social safety net programs — and President Biden’s hints that he might be willing to accept such a bargain — has drawn a backlash from liberal Democrats in Congress, underscoring the tricky politics at play in bipartisan talks to avert a default.
The proposal has become a central issue in negotiations between Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy, which entered a new phase this week as the two offered glimmers of hope that they could reach a deal to increase the borrowing limit, now projected to be reached as early as June 1, and avoid an economic catastrophe.
House Republicans’ debt limit bill, approved last month along party lines, would impose stricter work requirements for beneficiaries of food stamps, Medicaid and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and the speaker said this week that Republicans would insist on such a provision as part of any deal. Mr. Biden has pointedly left the door open to the idea, noting that he voted for work requirements as a senator. …
(If Biden is wrong about US not defaulting …
Democrats who could still challenge Biden for the presidential nomination
Boston Globe – May 18
Three weeks ago, President Biden announced he will seek reelection as president. As an incumbent, no other Democrat could come close to raising the campaign money he has or competing with his name recognition.
Still, Biden remains one of the weakest incumbent presidents to seek reelection in decades.
It’s not just that his approval rating dipped to 36 percent after he announced. Or that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, didn’t want him to run. …
(If the US defaults on the Debt, Biden’s re-nomination chances will plummet, IMO.)
(Presumably, that’s what McCarthy & McConnell are thinking also.)
(If the US defaults on the Debt, there will be enough damage done to the politicians in Washington for all of them to suffer horribly at the polls.
Dems are betting the GOP will be blamed more, in 2024. We will find out.)
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden To Run Again, Poll Finds—But They’ll Probably Vote For Him Anyway
Forbes – April 21
The poll, conducted April 13-17 among 1,230 U.S. adults, found only 26% of respondents would like to see Biden run again in 2024, versus 73% who said he shouldn’t.
That includes 47% of Democrats, while 52% of Democrats do not want him to run.
Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 bid was similarly unpopular, with 30% of respondents saying they don’t want him to run again, though 55% of Republicans say they want him to run again.
The vast majority of Democrats—81%—say they’re likely to support Biden in a general election if he does run, however, with 41% saying they would “definitely” vote for him and 40% saying they “probably” would.
The poll also found 43% of respondents would probably or definitely vote for Biden, while only 35% said the same of Trump. …
Biden 2024 splits Dems but most would back him: AP-NORC poll
AP – April 21
Heat Will Likely Soar to Record Levels in Next 5 Years, New Analysis Says
NY Times – just in
Global temperatures are likely to soar to record highs over the next five years, driven by human-caused warming and a climate pattern known as El Niño, forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
The record for Earth’s hottest year was set in 2016. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed that, the forecasters said, while the average from 2023 to ’27 will almost certainly be the warmest for a five-year period ever recorded. …
The organization reported that there is also a two thirds chance that one of the next five years could be 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than the 19th-century average.
That does not mean that the world will have officially breached the aspirational goal in the Paris climate agreement of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. When scientists talk about that temperature goal, they generally mean a longer-term average over, say, two decades in order to root out the influence of natural variability. …
” root out the influence of natural variability.”
…this sounds like “destroy the very thing that makes life possible. evolution is fueled by natural variability.
Coberly,
Poor semantics is no excuse, but Fred’s “root” was to expose statistical variability to the light of day, not change reality, but just perform a meaningful accounting of it.
Ron
I understod that, but I was struck by “sounds like..” which is what it amounts to. btw i think there is some chance that “statistical variability” would be taken to understand something like “experimental error” [something like] when natural variability is the critical essense of the subject. i get so tired of “average” being used to mean “the important part.” it’s kind of like taking “the majority” as the eleventh commandment.
If you don’t accept statistical reasoning, good luck dealing with current problems in much of science and most of society.
Dobbs
pardon my arrogance. I think I know more about “statitistical reasoning” than you do. What I object to is bad statistical reasoning.
Just as I object to reporters going around and mouthing “it’s just the math” when they haven’t done any math since the second grade.
Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years
WMO – May 17
Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas. ,,,
(One might wonder how evolution is working over on Venus.)
Dobbs
“one might wonder…”
exactly.
this was my point about “rooting out statistical variability. same idea with the 66% and 98% likelihoods in yours above. I wonder data set these statistical measures are based on and why they feel confident in reporting them to two significant digits.
pardon me about this, my pedantry does nothing to further the conversation..or what to do about it. or maybe only enouh to point out that “statistics” is a way of avoiding understanding, first, that the “uncertainty” doesn’t matter when you are about to be run over by a herd of buffalo at an average speed of 30.623 miles per hour. or (second) that when you are measuring something that MUST be accurate to 0.01 foot, it is unwise to take the average of six different measurements without understanding where the “error” is coming from “exactly.”
writing too fast: i shoud have said sample set instead of data set. and i should have at least mentioned the size of the variation in those “six measuremtents.” i said variation here instead of “standard deviation” because the latter is another one of those over-precise words that make people think they know something when they don’t
there are of course people who know far more about statistical reasoning than i do. the people i encounter on blogs and in my former profession are not among them.
Will The US Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’?
NY Times – Paul Krugman – May 19
… inflation, which had been quiescent for decades, surged in 2021-22 to levels not seen since the 1980s. It has come down from its peak, but it’s still higher than we’ve come to expect. And trying to get inflation back down has become a priority for policymakers.
The question is, how hard will disinflation be? Will it create anything like the pain many Americans endured in the early 1980s because of the Fed’s brutal decisions on interest rates? Or as people often put it, can we achieve a “soft landing”? …
The economy looks OK — if you ignore that ticking time bomb in D.C.
Boston Globe – May 15
A ‘soft landing’ is still possible, but not if the US stops paying its bills
It’s been one blow after another: a pandemic, a sharp but brief shutdown recession, the worst inflation in four decades, war in Ukraine, a bear market, and a trio of bank blowups.
Through it all the economy has proven surprisingly resilient, expanding by an inflation-adjusted 5.3 percent from just before COVID hit to the first quarter of this year. Unemployment is at a 55-year low.
Perhaps more surprising is that the Federal Reserve still has an outside chance of navigating a “soft landing” — the exceedingly difficult challenge of slowing the economy just enough to cool inflation without inducing steep job losses.
We can kiss a soft landing goodbye, of course, if Congress and President Biden don’t work out a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash.
If the government defaults on its financial obligations, and the self-inflicted crisis isn’t resolved quickly, the fallout would almost certainly crush financial markets and cause a deep recession.
“No one should assume that the Fed can protect the economy from the potential short- and long-term effects of a failure to pay our bills on time,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters on May 3.
But let’s put the doomsday scenario aside for the moment. Here’s a look at the fundamentals and what they say about where the economy is headed.
well, i don’t know. but from what i have seen in public reasoning on the subject, neither do they. and i get the feeling that “soft landing” is not what they care about. as long as they keep the bankers happy the rich can ride out a recession. and the poor can live on the street.
Debt Limit Talks Hit Snag as GOP Declares a ‘Pause’
NY Times – just in
Republicans left negotiations on Friday, saying the White House was refusing to move its way on spending cuts.
Negotiations between top White House and Republican congressional officials over a deal to raise the debt limit hit a snag on Friday when a G.O.P. leader in the talks said it was time to “press pause,” complaining that President Biden’s team was being unreasonable and that no progress could be made.
It was a setback in the effort to avert a debt default before a June 1 deadline, though it was not clear whether the delay was a tactical retreat or a lasting blow to chances of getting an agreement.
The halt came one day after the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus declared that Republicans should cease negotiations with Mr. Biden and insist on their debt limit legislation, which demanded steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the federal borrowing cap and is a dead letter in the Democratic-controlled Senate. …
‘Lucy van Pelt, Charlie Brown & the Football’ all over again!
A Comprehensive History of Charlie Brown, Lucy, and The Football
Listen to the audio here, maybe
Charlie Brown, Lucy, and The Football
And, they’re back…
Debt Limit Talks Resume …
NY Times – a while later
… The abrupt turnabout reflected the unwieldy state of negotiations over a bipartisan deal to avert a debt default that could occur as soon as June 1.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Friday evening on Fox Business that Republicans would return to the negotiating table and that bipartisan talks at the Capitol would continue into the night.
“We’ll be back in the room tonight,” Mr. McCarthy said. “But it’s very frustrating if they want to come into the room and think we’re going to spend more money next year than we did this year. That’s not right, and that’s not going to happen.” …
Republicans hinted on Friday that a major source of their frustration was how strictly to cap federal spending. The bill that House Republicans passed last month would raise the nation’s borrowing limit into next year in exchange for freezing spending at last year’s levels for a decade — which would lead to cuts of an average of 18 percent.
The bill is a dead letter in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus declared on Thursday that Republicans should insist that it pass as is.
“No more discussion on watering it down,” the group said in a tweet. “Period.” …
talks lasted only about an hour…
… Negotiators were at odds over a handful of issues, including the extent to which a possible deal would include tougher work requirements for social safety net programs — a proposal that has drawn a backlash from progressive Democrats — and the length of any debt limit extension.
Conservatives in the House G.O.P. conference had grown increasingly concerned in recent days that Mr. McCarthy would agree to a deal freezing spending at current levels, rather than at last year’s levels, and would not lock in the kind of spending cuts for which they have long agitated. …