Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. […]
Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the […]
New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of […]
New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau […]
House prices may have bottomed, while YoY price increases (leading inflation) have declined to lower than their 25-year average – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through March as measured by both the FHFA (light blue in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (dark blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the […]
Weekly Indicators for May 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several of the indicators that popped higher one week ago sank back lower this week. The overall picture remains very slight positivity in the coincident numbers. Meanwhile stock prices continued to make […]
April report for real personal income and spending adds to the evidence that a cyclical peak might ultimately be dated to January – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated for the past several months, at present the report on personal income and spending is co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly […]
Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again – by New Deal democrat Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is […]
Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports shows big deceleration in Q4 of last year – by New Deal democrat I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on how stocks, bonds, and consumers behaved during the 3 fiscal crises of the last decade. Hint: recessions are always disinflationary. Also of […]
New home sales and prices: yet another confirmation of a bottom in sales, while prices continue to decline YoY – by New Deal democrat The last of the monthly updates for new home construction, new home sales, was reported this morning. And it continued the theme from the other data (permits, starts, existing home sales); […]