Initial and continuing claims edge closer to signaling recession  – by New Deal democrat There’s a blizzard of data this morning. I’ll report on retail sales and Industrial production later. But let’s start with initial jobless claims, which were unchanged this week at 262,000, the highest level in over 18 months. The 4 week average increased […]

Producer prices continue sharp deceleration; real average and aggregate nonsupervisory pay continues to increase  – by New Deal democrat Historically producer prices were more upstream of consumer prices, but since the 1990s and the employment of “just-in-time” inventories, that has been less the case. So I normally don’t pay too much attention to the monthly […]

CPI less shelter up only 0.7% in last 11 months (0.8% annualized rate)  – by New Deal democrat Let me cut to the chase right from the outset: except for the very lagging measures of shelter; motor vehicle parts, repairs and insurance; and to a lesser and waning extent, food; consumer inflation is now well-contained […]

Are personal consumption expenditures a helpful forecasting (or even nowcasting) metric? An overview  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a number of times recently, in addition to payrolls the other positive datapoint keeping the economy growing is real personal spending. Here is what it looks like in total, plus broken down by goods […]

Real business sales estimate: up 0.3% in April, but still below January peak  – by New Deal democrat Let me start today by re-upping this graph of the current state of the coincident indicators mentioned by the NBER as data that they track: As I wrote earlier this week, the two positives keeping the economy […]

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 237,250, still lower than its April peak. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.757 million: When we […]

Scenes from the employment report: an important trend in self-employment; and real aggregate payrolls  – by New Deal democrat We’re still in the week of drought following the payrolls release last Friday. Today let’s take a look at a few more items of interest from the Household Survey side. As you probably recall, the bottom […]

The consumer may finally be faltering  – by New Deal democrat At this point I think the “smart” econ take is that either any recession is very much delayed, or even not going to happen at all. While everything is possible, I’ve argued in several places that if you date a potential business cycle peak […]

Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote Friday, the May employment report was deeply bifurcated, with a strong Establishment survey, but a weak Household survey.   Let’s take a look at some of that bifurcation, focusing on the leading indicators. There are […]

Weekly Indicators for May 29 – June 2 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Much like yesterday’s employment report, which showed a deep bifurcation between the Establishment and Household Surveys, the economy as a whole is also showing a deep bifurcation between elements well into recessionary […]