May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive – by New Deal democrat Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: for the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are […]
Initial jobless claims: moving closer to a red flag warning – by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4 week average declined -3,500 to 253,250. With a one week lag, continued claims declined -13,000 to 1.20 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up […]
Coronavirus update: mid year 2023 – by New Deal democrat I haven’t done an update on the state of COVID since March or April. As we are halfway through the year, and just past the July 4 holiday get-togethers that sparked summer waves in the past, let’s take a look. Covid isn’t gone, but it […]
A brief essay for July 4, 2023 – by New Deal democrat Selections from Brutus, the anti-federalist who argued against the Constitution’s institution of the Supreme Court: “When great and extraordinary powers are vested in any man, or body of men, which in their exercise, may operate to the oppression of the people, it is of […]
Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). […]
SUNDAY, JULY 2, 2023 Weekly Indicators for June 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Movement among the indicators continues to be slow as molasses, but an important bifurcation stands out: indicators focusing on services continue to show good growth, while indicators focusing […]
Real income continues to set records, while real spending and real total sales falter – by New Deal democrat Real personal spending faltered in May, and real total sales continued to falter in April, as of this morning’s report; while real personal income continued to be aided by the big decline in gas prices that […]
Initial jobless claims: still at distress levels, still not red flag recession warning – by New Deal democrat Initial claims dropped -26,000 last week to 239,000, the top of their former range this spring. The more important 4 week moving average rose 1,500 to 257,500, a new 18 month high. With a one week lag, […]
Pent-up demand and sales: an update – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today. So while we wait to see if initial jobless claims continue to worsen tomorrow, and what happens with real personal spending and income, as well as real business sales on Friday, let me point you to an updated […]
Higher new home sales, with lower prices in May: good! – by New Deal democrat Let me start with my usual caveat about new home sales: while they are the most leading of all housing metrics, they are very noisy and heavily revised. With that out of the way, the bottom line is that they offered […]