June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainly via a gradual decline in job openings compared with labor availability. In other words, for the umpteenth time, “deceleration.” Job openings and actual hires […]

Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending for the month before last. Additionally, I am going to take a look at motor vehicle production, because I […]

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?  – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite […]

Weekly Indicators for July 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there continues to be evidence of the normal progression of weakness from long leading to short leading to coincident indicators, there has also been an anomalous major positive resurgence in some […]

Driven by the hurricane force disinflationary tailwind, real personal spending and income, and real sales, all increase nicely  – by New Deal democrat In the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts of the housing […]

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead  – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from […]

Continuing improvement in new jobless claims re-sets the clock  – by New Deal democrat Let’s get the easy part of this morning’s slew of data out of the way first:  initial jobless claims declined -7,000 to 221,000. The 4 week average declined -3,750 to 233,750. With a one week lag, continuing claims declined -50,000 to […]

Prices for new single family homes down YoY,, while sales fluctuate; apartment rent changes YoY are zero  – by New Deal democrat June’s new home sales, and Apartment List’s Rent Report, this morning rounded out our view of this important leading sector through June. New single family home sales are the most leading of all the […]

House prices stabilize (or even increase!) for existing homes, while prices have been slashed for new homes. What’s going on?  – by New Deal democrat Both the Case Shiller and FHFA housing price indexes were reported this morning through May. To quote each in turn: “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering […]

A “Big Picture” summary of why a recession still looks likely, even if it hasn’t occurred yet  – by New Deal democrat The below started out as a comment somewhere else, but it is too good a “big picture” summary of where the economy is today and not to post it here. I still intend […]