Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Coronavirus dashboard for April 19: Much great progress, and some problem children

Coronavirus dashboard for April 19: Much great progress, and some problem children   As an initial note, there is no significant economic data until Thursday this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two…. Today let’s take a look at the latest coronavirus information. There’s much progress on the […]

Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface

Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface As an initial note, retail sales for March blew out to the upside, but as expected due to cosnumers’ spending their latest pandemic stimulus checks. People visit sites like stimuluschecker.org to check the status of their stimulus payment or verify their eligibility. This does […]

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a […]

Wealth distribution in the US continues to be a first order economic issue

Wealth distribution in the US continues to be a first order economic issue Tomorrow (Thursday) is one of those days when just about Every Economic Statistic in the World will be released. In the meantime, no new data today. So, while we wait, let me send you over to this article by Wolf Richter analyzing the […]

Real wages decline, but real aggregate wages increase

Monthly consumer inflation rate increases by most in 10 years; real wages decline, but real aggregate wages increase  – by New Deal democratSeasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.6% in March. This was the biggest single month gain since June 2009, coming out of the Great Recession: Leaving aside the pandemic, since the 1980s recessions have only […]

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. As the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, I expect a big increase in renewed consumer and social […]

With a Booming economy comes at least transitory inflation

With a Booming economy comes at least transitory inflation: March producer prices One of the economic subjects you are going to hear a lot about this year is inflation. We are recovering from a sharp if brief recession, and with the dual firehoses of fiscal and monetary stimulus, entering a Boom such as we have […]

Pandemic still in control

February JOLTS report showed a pandemic still in control Yesterday morning’s JOLTS report for February showed that the pandemic was still in control of the numbers.This report has only a 20 year history, and so includes only two prior recoveries. In those recoveries:  first, layoffs declined second, hiring rose third, job openings rose and voluntary quits increased, […]

Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: the problematic cases of Chile . . . and Michigan

Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: the problematic cases of Chile . . . and Michigan As you probably already know, the news on the vaccination front continues to be good, as the US is now administering on average over 3 million doses a day – and still climbing. At this rate of improvement, every adult […]