Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from […]
Continuing improvement in new jobless claims re-sets the clock – by New Deal democrat Let’s get the easy part of this morning’s slew of data out of the way first: initial jobless claims declined -7,000 to 221,000. The 4 week average declined -3,750 to 233,750. With a one week lag, continuing claims declined -50,000 to […]
Prices for new single family homes down YoY,, while sales fluctuate; apartment rent changes YoY are zero – by New Deal democrat June’s new home sales, and Apartment List’s Rent Report, this morning rounded out our view of this important leading sector through June. New single family home sales are the most leading of all the […]
House prices stabilize (or even increase!) for existing homes, while prices have been slashed for new homes. What’s going on? – by New Deal democrat Both the Case Shiller and FHFA housing price indexes were reported this morning through May. To quote each in turn: “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering […]
A “Big Picture” summary of why a recession still looks likely, even if it hasn’t occurred yet – by New Deal democrat The below started out as a comment somewhere else, but it is too good a “big picture” summary of where the economy is today and not to post it here. I still intend […]
Weekly Indicators for July 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. At least when it comes to weekly measures of consumer spending, the “waiting for godot” recession seems to have finally arrived. Meanwhile other metrics have been picking up steam as to the near […]
How long until the historically tight jobs market reverts to trend? – by New Deal democrat There are some very unusual cross-currents going on in the housing sector, revealed by yesterday’s existing home sales report. But it will take some time-intensive organization to present it to you, so I’m saving it for (hopefully) Monday. In the […]
Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the […]
June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had […]
Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this […]