May jobs report: almost all positive, but not good enough HEADLINES: 559,000 jobs added: 492,000 private sector plus 67,000 government. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 444,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below. The total number of employed is still 7,629,000, or 5.0% […]
New jobless claims continue strong decline, consistent with ongoing recovery, while continuing claims continue mixed New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – deaths are at their lowest point in over a year, […]
May manufacturing continues white hot; April construction spending shows signs of being constrained by materials and costs It’s the first of the month, which means we get our first look at May data in the form of the ISM manufacturing index, as well as April construction spending. The questions we are looking for information to […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 2: most of US approaches herd immunity threshold; COVID still spreading among the remaining idiots In the past week new COVID-19 cases declined almost 30%, by about 7,000 to 17,289/day; however, deaths actually increased by about 10% to an average of 589/day, mainly due to a data dump by California 5 […]
by New Deal democrat Comprehensive April housing report: beware the inventory and price boomerang! Now that we have all of the April housing data, my comprehensive look at this long leading sector is up at Seeking Alpha. It’s pretty clear that sales and new construction have peaked in the short term. So, what happens when all […]
Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look. In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means […]
New home sales decline in April, revised sharply lower for March; prices continue to skyrocket, while inventory increases This morning both new home sales and two price indexes for houses were released for April, completing our view of that important long leading sector. As anticipated, not only did new home sales decline for the month, […]
New jobless claims continue to decline at rate of 100,000 per month, while continued claims stall at elevated level New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are […]
Coronavirus dashboard for May 24: 3 weeks to 0 new cases? No, that won’t happen. But, even so, that is the current trajectory. Let’s start with the overview:Total *confirmed* cases: 33,117,737Total deaths: 589,893 Note that there are many more cases that we don’t know about because the people were never tested. Since about half of […]
Existing vs. new home sales: sales have peaked, expect prices to soon peak I normally don’t pay much attention to existing home sales. Even though they constitute about 90% of the housing market, they have much less impact on the economy overall than new home sales (because all of the economic activity involved in building […]