Coronavirus update: the virus is back; everyone should return to their prior precautions and get boosted this fall  – by New Deal democrat At the beginning of this year, I indicated that I anticipated only writing about Covid if something significant was happening.  It is, so let’s look at the data. Almost all State and Federal […]

Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains  – by New Deal democrat Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag. This week initial jobless claims declined -13,000 to a 6+ month low of 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined -8,500 to 229,250. With a one-week lag, continuing claims […]

Scenes from the August employment report – and a warning  – by New Deal democrat The weekly lull after last Friday’s employment report will end tomorrow. In the meantime, let’s take a deeper dive into a few important trends in that report. First, the unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 3.8% – which is totally not surprising […]

Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn  –  by New Deal democrat No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1st of the month snapshot of manufacturing, vehicle sales, and construction, so let’s look at each. The ISM […]

Weekly Indicators for August 28 – September 1 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The long leading indicators continue to forecast that a hard landing is out there, while the short leading indicators – aided by a sharp increase in consumer spending in the past few […]

August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, particularly manufacturing and residential construction jobs, but also total construction and goods production jobs as a whole; as well as watching for the increase in jobless claims to translate into a higher […]

YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%  – by New Deal democrat I’ll post on personal income and spending a little later. But first, initial jobless claims declined -4,000 to 228,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased 250 to 237,500. With a one week delay, […]

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?  – by New Deal democrat For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs put out by potential employers than there are job applicants willing to fill them. Also […]

Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining  – by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and total active listings of housing inventory, which are very instructive: This information is not seasonally adjusted, and obviously follows a […]

Fed rate hikes in the face of declining commodity prices: an analysis of 4 precedents  – by New Deal democrat We live in interesting commodity times. Over the weekend, my latest piece at Seeking Alpha highlighted the strong contrary pulls of higher interest rates and lower commodity prices. While not unique, as we’ll see below, the […]