The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly […]
Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels – by New Deal democrat Initial claims were 250,000 last week. The 4 week average increased to 234,250. Continuing claims with a one week delay were 1.716 million. Most importantly, YoY the4 week moving average is up 9.5%: This is well below the 12.5% YoY increase […]
Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition – by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is still down -0.6% from its peak last autumn, while manufacturing is down -01.%: These are not recessionary numbers. It’s worth emphasizing that the unspooling of […]
In housing construction, the last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition – by New Deal democrat [First, a blogging note: I will be traveling for the next week and a half. I’ll keep posting the data, but the posts are likely to be brief, and may be a day late. On days when there […]
July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend – by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued the recent trend since gas prices started declining over a year ago. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7%. Since […]
This is the Big Story: a 100+ year near-record decline in commodity prices is enabling continued record wage growth and employment – by New Deal democrat No important economic data today, so let me elaborate on the matter of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., the decline in inflation without a decline in growth. I’m going to argue […]
Missed this analysis on Friday. July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place – by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the producer price index, but because the steep decline in producer prices has been such a boon to businesses, and a big tailwind for the economy as […]
Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in particular with the coincident indicators. Buoyed by the big downturn in commodity prices, and somnolence of consumer prices ex-fictitious shelter, […]
July CPI: almost everything except fictitious shelter costs are getting close to the Fed’s comfort range – by New Deal democrat Gasoline prices and fictitious shelter prices are once again moving in opposite directions, in a direct reversal of what the situation had been in the past 12 months. During late 2022 into this year, energy […]
Initial jobless claims: a little soft, but continued expansion signaled – by New Deal democrat I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week to 248,000. The more important 4 week moving average rose 2,750 to 231,000. With a one week delay, continuing claims […]