The long awaited downturn in multi-family construction may finally have happened – by New Deal democrat With the relative fading of manufacturing in importance to the US economy, the leading construction sector has assumed even greater importance. And the most important data about construction are the leading, and long leading, data about residential housing construction. […]
The 2 big reasons (one obvious, one subtle) why real median household income declined in 2022 – by New Deal democrat Last week, with its usual very big lag, median household income was reported by the Census Bureau for 2022. If, given big wage gains and hiring in 2022, you were expecting a significant increase, […]
Weekly Indicators for September 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The only significant change in any metric is that manufacturing, as measured by the average of the new orders sub-indexes of the regional Feds’ monthly reports is on the very cusp of […]
Has industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, been dethroned? – by New Deal democrat Industrial production in the post-WW2 era was the King of Coincident Indicators. In the past 20 years, it may have been dethroned. To wit, in August production increased 0.4% to a new post-pandemic high, but only 0.1% above its previous […]
Real retail sales continue to be weak; continue to forecast weakening jobs reports – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.6% in August. So did […]
The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote; “I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is […]
Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week […]
August consumer inflation confirms “Goldilocks” “soft landing” may well be “transitory” – by New Deal democrat Let me start by quoting from my post yesterday: “As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weights of decelerating shelter increases (which as I have written many times are well-forecasted by the more current home […]
PPI and CPI preview: why Paul Krugman’s “Goldilocks” economy is likely to prove “transitory” – by New Deal democrat Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday. Every now and then, real life intrudes and, well, yesterday was one of those days. All of the economic data this week is going to be crammed into tomorrow […]
Weekly Indicators for September 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The tug of war between the headwind of high interest rates and the tailwind of low commodity and consumer inflation continues. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you right up […]