Weekly Indicators for October 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Obviously, the big story of the week was the surge in interest rates. The 10 year Treasury yield closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and mortgage rates went above 8% […]
Why the index of leading indicators failed: examining the once in a lifetime post-pandemic tailwind – by New Deal democrat Carl Quintanilla observed the one year anniversary of the following two days ago: I’ve written previously about what confounded that forecast. But let me highlight those issues again. 1. A 40% drop in gas prices, and […]
The collapse of the existing home market continues in September – by New Deal democrat September was yet another month in the ongoing collapse of existing home sales. To wit, sales declined another -8,000 on an annualized basis to 3.960 million. This is the lowest number since August 2010. And aside from that one singular […]
Initial claims on the cusp of turning lower YoY – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims dropped below 200,000 last week for the first time since January, and not too far from the 50+ year low of 182,000 set in September one year ago. Specifically, they declined -13,000 to 198,000. The four-week average declined -1,000 […]
The last holdout in housing data has turned; ‘recession watch’ for next 12 months remains – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that: “the biggest news was what happened with units under construction. The total declined slightly, as did single family units. But most significantly, for the first time since February 2021, multi-family […]
Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it […]
A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and […]
The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the […]
Weekly Indicators for October 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made its way through to the coincident indicators. But, given the importance of gas prices, whether the turmoil in the Middle East spreads […]
Real average wages decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak – by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers are doing: real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up […]