Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims […]
If you have been following NDd, you will note one of the biggest issues with the economy is supply chain. Most notably shortages of raw material, components, and finished products. Similar occurred in 2008 and my own belief is this is a recurrence of similar. I believe much of this could have been prevented. Beyongd […]
It appears inflation is coming down this year and probably into next year also. Maybe Biden will not have to twist the Fed’s arm to get them to lower the Fed rate. Except for fictitious shelter and motor vehicle insurance and repairs, consumer inflation is thoroughly contained – by New Deal democrat The October CPI […]
Why Biden is in trouble about the economy – by New Deal democrat A big focus of political discourse in the past two weeks has been about why Biden seems to be polling so poorly against Trump, and in particular has not consolidated support among younger voters. Since the economy is always a very important […]
I have been sharing New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators with an Edward Jones consultant who handles our funds. He was pretty impressed with the detail New Deal democrat gives here and at Seeking Alpha. He has his own account so he can go every week (I am limited). If have some time, you should explore […]
Consumption leads (longer term) unemployment, too – by New Deal democrat Once again there is no new economic data, so let me follow up some more on the issue of longer term unemployment. Earlier this week I pointed out that just as initial claims lead continuing claims, so does short term unemployment (under 5 weeks) […]
Scenes from the October jobs report: soft landing vs. continued slow deceleration – by New Deal democrat First, an editorial note: economic news is light this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two. That being said, let’s take a look at the most important trends, as I […]
Weekly Indicators for October 30 – November 3 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One way I keep track of the producer side of the economy is via the long leading indicator of corporate profits and the short leading indicator of the stock market. As […]
New Deal democrat’s October Jobs report is again featured at Angry Bear. You can also pick-up the September 2023 Jobs Report from the link at the end of this report. This is the most complete monthly review on Unemployment Rate, average hourly earnings (minus management), which way job growth or decline is going, and a […]
Initial claims: were the recent lows just unresolved seasonality after all? – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 5,000 to a 7 week high of 217,000 this week. The 4 week moving average rose 2,000 to 210,000 from its 9 month low of 208,000 last week. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims […]