Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Initial claims, Expansion, and Employment

Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow  – by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly basis, claims rose 1,000 to 221,000. The four week average rose 500 to 220,750. […]

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 237,250, still lower than its April peak. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.757 million: When we […]

Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again

Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again  – by New Deal democrat Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is […]