Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again
Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again
– by New Deal democrat
Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report.
Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is now all the way down to 231,000! Big difference.
Anyway, the current report indicates a weekly uptick of 4,000 to 229,000. The 4 week moving average was unchanged at 231,750. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -5,000 to 1.794 million:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdscMTZbJkHoGsKVcrGs-YpDWGMy8RUZCWqDaRiC2cWKPENmFdwyw5avw0cMDecvDoJ2-a3nCAmxDe-iFROTnVrdDY71CLXEBVW-WAXNtL-mEdFqOukXTtI7HXvT4hYW0UYHQnrcQgpGqKyAHTtSzvBly_NQW_YeDxIxsMIrjcJsRYi5265Q12H1rOgg/w400-h173/981EF280-6593-4C80-82C0-8678BD95E8F3.jpeg)
On a YoY% basis, after revisions claims are currently up only 6.5%, and the more important 4 week average only 7.2%. Only continuing claims continue to show big gains of 25.3%:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKGXump-GlxgUXTqOYtnpvbOKCHjBNbSjPpR-sKghUw1MbmE2eKvqGFd-keRZfbNlAzE3LkZdZYP43ckW7kUH7wa7C2CXbfBtMR42i0fGbuK9Nx0ehd690j05-j3_aT4DnWcKOEtfjc5kiwFgQre3JZNEgFeb4EELzf6nM_V7cTeBbsjQH0WU6N7uwQg/w400-h173/889D7912-2157-4F02-A550-BF0A49954900.jpeg)
Most importantly, after revisions the 4 week average has never crossed the 12.5% threshold, and has been below 10% for the last two weeks. Should claims be below 10% YoY as well, I will remove the yellow flag – pending revisions.
Jobless claims: yellow caution flag persists, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat