November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration has been continuing;” and more […]

Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow  – by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly basis, claims rose 1,000 to 221,000. The four week average rose 500 to 220,750. […]

What is interesting about NDd’s latest is his identifying manufacturing playing “a much smaller role in the total US economy now than it used to in the decades after WW2.” He identifies another factor occurring before the start of a recession. It has become increasingly necessary for spending on services to falter as well. Real […]

October JOLTS report: yet one more month in the ongoing decelerating trend  – by New Deal democrat  All of the major metrics in this month’s JOLTS report for October continued to show deceleration. Here are openings (blue), hires (red), and quits (gold), all normed to 100 just before the pandemic: As you can see, at […]

On a YoY basis manufacturing is the star of the show. But note from the historical graph that residential construction previously has turned down first, with manufacturing and other non-residential construction lagging (likely because of long lead times and the extended duration of completing projects). A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and […]

Weekly Indicators for November 27 – December 1 at Seeking Alpha; plus a comment on the ISM manufacturing report  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident data continues quite strong, and the long leading indicators are increasingly “less bad,” which is something that happens when recessions are […]

This was posted at 8:03 AM at the Bonddad Blog Thursday. I see other venues having similar reports up also. I am sometimes late in posting NDd’s economic commentaries. Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target  – by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM […]

Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October  – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer […]

Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion  – by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on jobless claims. Initial claims rose 7,000 to 218,000, while the 4 week average declined -500 to 220,000. With a […]

Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works?  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based exclusively on the NAHB builder sentiment index. Here’s his accompanying graph, comparing builder sentiment with the unemployment rate […]