Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole inflationary pressure  – by New Deal democrat Once again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter. In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined -1.2%. Even producer prices for services were unchanged: On a YoY basis, commodity prices […]

Consumer inflation remains all about the lagged effect of house prices  – by New Deal democrat Consumer inflation in December continued to be a tale of the relative importance of gas prices vs. the lagged effect of home prices. Headline inflation increased 0.3%, and was up 3.4% YoY. YoY headline inflation has bounced between 3.1%-3.7% […]

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first […]

Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased […]

Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-) employment. Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims lead the unemployment rate. Here are both […]

Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of weakness and strength  – by New Deal democrat For nearly two decades, my focus on economic reporting online has been finding and examining leading indicators; those datapoints that tell us where the economy in general, and in particular jobs and income for ordinary […]

Weekly Indicators for January 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this over the weekend, so here it is now: my Weekly Indicators post up at Seeking Alpha. I’ll put a post up later taking a detailed look at some aspects of Friday’s employment report.

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  The news on all three was good. The six-month average of […]

Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”  – by New Deal democrat We’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims for the last week of December declined -18,000 to 202,000, the lowest since October. More importantly, the 4-week average declined -4,750 to 207,750, […]

ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction, and the trend in vehicle sales may have turned down as well The ISM manufacturing index, where any value below 50 indicates contraction, once again came in negative for both the total index, at 47.4, and the more leading new orders subindex, at 47.1. Both have been indicating contraction […]