A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth – by New Deal democrat Before today’s avalanche of data, I wanted to comment briefly on the Employment Cost Index for Q4 that was reported yesterday. This index has the advantage of weighting for type of employment. If low wage workers gain a disproportionate number of […]
December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. Let me start with layoffs and discharges, which increased by 85,000 to 1.616 million (blue in the graph […]
Repeat home sale prices continue rebound; rents continue decline – by New Deal democrat Since the Fed started raising interest rates almost two years ago, homebuilding has shifted away from single family houses to condos and apartments, the construction of which has made repeated all-time highs. This has become reflected in house price vs. apartment rental […]
Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession? – by New Deal democrat While I have written about how the Index of Leading Indicators failed last year, as the loosening of and disinflation in supply chains overwhelmed the effects of Fed tightening, it wasn’t as if […]
Weekly Indicators for January 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then the data has a particularly noisy week, and this past week seems to have been one, as a number of – especially coincident – indicators hit an air […]
AB: I am cheating and giving you the close to the last line in NDd’s report. You really should read NDd’s report in its entirety. A three minute read? “this month’s report continues to reflect a consumer economy that is doing very well.” December 2023 personal income and spending: Goldilocks is in the house UPDATED […]
Core capital goods orders, three month average of manufacturers’ new orders both make new all-time highs – by New Deal democrat Before I update this morning’s personal income and spending data, I wanted to briefly note some significant news in yesterday’s report on manufacturers new orders. (I’ll discuss the important leading metrics from the GDP report […]
New home sales: if you lower prices, they (buyers) will come – by New Deal democrat New home sales are the most leading of all the housing metrics, but suffer from being heavily revised as well as extreme volatility. With that caveat out of the way, in December new single family home sales (blue in […]
Attacks on Red Sea shipping, and its tie to US energy consumption – by New Deal democrat The drought in economic data continues today. So let me continue on the issue of energy, tying into yesterday’s note on hybrid and electric vehicles. Here’s an eye-opening graph from JP Morgan via Carl Quintanilla’s social media feed, showing […]
A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off dealer lots – by New Deal democrat In addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. Basically almost the entirety of 2020 production was lost, leading to roughly a 10 million vehicle shortfall in […]