NDd’s long leading forecast for 2024

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha

 – by New Deal democrat

A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store.

This article is up at Seeking Alpha. 

Below, a brief Introduction of what New Deal democrat is featuring. As usual, a very well detailed article by NDd.

The Long Leading Forecast Through Year End 2024


  • Long leading indicators provide insights into the likely state of the economy one year from now.
  • Corporate bond yields, housing, credit conditions, and real retail sales per capita are positive indicators.
  • The yield curve and real money supply are the only unequivocally negative indicators.
  • Supply Chain pressures have apparently abated, and the balance of long leading indicators are now tending slightly positive, indicating that the remainder of 2024 is likely to show continued expansion.


With the report on Q4 GDP and the Senior Loan Officer Survey of bank lending by the Federal Reserve, we have almost all the information we need to take a long-range peer into the likely state of the economy one year from now, via the long leading indicators.